The PAGES2K (2013) Arctic reconstruction of Kaufman et al has attracted considerable attention as a non-Mannian hockey stick. However, it’s been fraught with problems since day one, including a major re-statement of results in August 2014 (McKay and Kaufman, 2014 pdf), in which Kaufman conceded (without direct acknowledgement) Climate Audit criticism that their results had been […]
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Does it matter whether proxies are used upside-down or not? Maybe not in Mann-world (where, in response to our criticism at PNAS, Mann claimed that it was impossible for him to use series upside-down). But, unlike Mann, Darrell Kaufman acknowledges responsibility for using proxies upside-up. Unfortunately, he and the PAGES2K authors don’t seem to be […]
Kaufman and the PAGES2K Arctic2K group recently published a series of major corrections to their database, some of which directly respond to Climate Audit criticism. The resulting reconstruction has been substantially revised with substantially increased medieval warmth. His correction of the contaminated Igaliku series is unfortunately incomplete and other defects remain.
I’m listening to a presentation by PAGES2K authors sponsored by Nature: http://blogs.nature.com/ofschemesandmemes/2013/05/02/npg-journal-club-how-has-earths-climate-changed-in-the-past-2000-years-npgjclub#comment-1503 Started at 11 am Eastern. 11:30. Open for questions. I have submitted the following: Can you explain the decision to label the article as only a “Progress Article”, rather than a Research Article? Nature’s definition of Progress Articles http://www.nature.com/ngeo/authors/content_types.html says that such articles […]
The PAGES2K Arctic reconstruction uses Gifford Miller’s Hvitavatn (Iceland) data upside down. The error “matters” because this series is one of rather few PAGES2K series that show a Hockey Stick. Such gross errors ought to be corrected before the data is cited for policy purposes or said to confirm previous studies.
The PAGES2K article to be published tomorrow will show eight regional reconstructions, which are plotted below. In today’s post, I’ll try to briefly summarize what, if anything, is new about them. Antarctica: This is a composite of 11 isotope series (mostly d18O). It includes some new data (e.g. Steig’s new WAIS series) and some long […]
A commenter observed that the forthcoming PAGES2K received over 50 pages of review comments from one reviewer. One wonders what he had to say about the PAGES2K South American network which has some very odd characteristics. Here is a list of proxies with a couple of interesting features highlighted. First, note that the “proxy” network […]
March 15, 2013 was the IPCC deadline for use in AR5 and predictably a wave of articles have been accepted. The IPCC Paleo chapter wanted a graphic on regional reconstructions and the PAGES2K group has obligingly provided the raw materials for this graphic, which will be published by Nature on April 21. Thanks to an […]
The money quote in the PAGES2K abstract was that there wasn’t any worldwide Little Ice Age of Medieval Warm Period and that AD1971-2000 temperatures were the highest in nearly 1400 years, long before the Medieval Period: There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little […]
PAGES2K (2013) unequivocally stated that the Arctic was “warmest during the 20th century”: The Arctic was also warmest during the twentieth century, although warmer during 1941–1970 than 1971–2000 according to our reconstruction. McKay and Kaufman 2014 did not withdraw or amend the above statement, instead reporting that the revision amplified the cooling trend prior to […]