The North Atlantic hurricane season has nearly come to an end. As November progresses, the chance of another storm developing becomes smaller. Climatology (last 60 years) tells us that roughly 4 in 10 years see a November storm formation including 4 in 2005 (Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon), Hurricane Michelle (2001), Hurricane Lenny (1999), and Hurricane […]
Sept 9: Updated to follow Hurricane Ike, and possible US impacts in the next 4-5 days The North Atlantic tropics are becoming very active as the calendar approaches the climatological peak of the season (September 11). With high sea-surface temperatures and generally favorable atmospheric conditions (i.e. low vertical shear), every circulation or puff of convection […]
A new peer-reviewed paper has been published in an American Meteorology Society journal that raises many more questions on the linkages between hurricane activity and global warming. Eric Berger at the Houston Chronicle (SciGuy) did the leg-work and is the first (and only) mainstream media outlet to report the findings of Emanuel et al. (2008) […]
Discussion of 2008 Hurricane seasonal forecasts, old and new research papers, and interpretation of trends over the entire globe.
Ryan Maue writes in as follows (see also 2007 Tropical Cyclone Activity). As reported at Climate Audit at the end of October, the North Atlantic was not the only ocean seeing quiet tropical cyclone activity. When using the ACE cyclone energy scale, the Northern Hemisphere as a whole is historically inactive. How inactive? One has […]
With October nearly done circling the drain, I figure it is about time to bring out the broom : Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone activity is at historically low levels . In fact, September 2007 suffered the lowest ACE since 1977 ! Even scarier, so far 2006 and 2007 have the lowest October ACE since 1976 […]
A non-global warming explanation for the lack of moisture/drought in the US Southwest deals with the lack of Hurricane activity in the Eastern Pacific basin. The moisture, upper-level outflow, and accentuation of the monsoon can all be traced back partially to EPAC storms, which are highly sensitive to SST conditions in the equatorial Pacific (ENSO). […]