Author Archives: Steve McIntyre

Varved Inconsistency

Since AR4, there have been a series of new multiproxy studies, several of which were cited in AR5 (Mann et al 2008; Ljungqvist et al 2010; Christiansen and Ljungqvist 2012; Shi et al 2013). A distinctive feature of these and other recent multiproxy studies is the incorporation of varve thickness and near-equivalent mass accumulation rate […]

The “Canonical” Varve Thickness Series

Shi et al 2013 use the following five varve thickness series, all of which have become widely used in multiproxy series since their introduction in Kaufman et al 2009: Big Round Lake and Donard Lake, Baffin Island; Lower Murray Lake, Ellesmere Island; and Blue Lake and Iceberg Lake, Alaska. Some of these proxies have been […]

More on Hvitarvatn Varves

In a previous post on PAGES2K Arctic, I pointed out that they had used the Hvitarvatn, Iceland series (PAGES2K version shown below), upside-down to the interpretation of the original authors (Miller et al), who had interpreted thick varves as evidence of the Little Ice Age. A few days ago, Miller and coauthors archived a variety […]

Bristlecone Addiction in Shi et al 2013

Recently, Robert Way drew attention to Shi et al 2013 (online here), a multiproxy study cited in AR5, but not yet discussed at CA. The paper by Shi et al (2013) is fairly convincing as to at least the last 1,000 years in the Northern Hemisphere. I am actually surprised that paper has not been […]

Behind the SKS Curtain

As a preamble and reprise, I think that it is reasonable for Cowtan and Way to take exception with HadCRU’s failure to estimate temperature in Arctic gridcells and to propose methods for estimating this temperature. At a time when the climate community argued that differences between the major indices and accessibility to CRU data didn’t […]

Cowtan and Way 2013

There has been some discussion of Cowtan and Way 2013 take on HadCRUT4 at Lucia’s, Judy Curry’s, Nick Stokes and elsewhere. HadCRUt4 has run cooler than other datasets (including UAH satellite) in recent years. Cowtan and Way observe that HadCRU does not estimate temperature in many Arctic gridcells. Because Arctic temperatures have risen more than […]

Another Absurd Lewandowsky Correlation

Lewandowsky’s recent article, “Role of Conspiracist Ideation” continues Lewandowsky’s pontification on populations of 2, 1 and zero. As observed here a couple of days ago, there were no respondents in the original survey who simultaneously believed that Diana faked her own death and was murdered. Nonetheless, in L13Role, Lewandowsky not only cited this faux example, […]

A Scathing Indictment of Federally-Funded Nutrition Research

Edward Archer of the University of South Carolina, lead author of a scathing examination of U.S. federally-funded nutrition research, has written an even more scathing editorial in The Scientist (here) (H/t Margaret Wente of the Toronto Globe and Mail here.) Some quotes: We may be witnessing the confluence of two inherent components of the human […]

The Zen of Population (N=0)

Mann rose to prominence by supposedly being able to detect “faint” signals using “advanced” statistical methods. Lewandowsky has taken this to a new level: using lew-statistics, lew-scientists can deduce properties of population with no members. Josh summarizes the zen of lew-statistics as follows:

More False Claims from Lewandowsky

Another bogus claim from Lewandowsky would hardly seem to warrant a blog post, let alone a bogus claim about people holding contradictory beliefs. The ability of many climate scientists to hold contradictory beliefs at the same time has long been a topic of interest at climate blogs (Briffa’s self contradiction being a particular source of […]


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