Author Archives: Steve McIntyre

Two Minutes to Midnight

There is much in the news about how IPCC will handle the growing discrepancy between models and observations – long an issue at skeptic blogs. According to BBC News, a Dutch participant says that “governments are demanding a clear explanation” of the discrepancy. On the other hand, Der Spiegel reports: German ministries insist that it […]

IPCC and the end of summer

Though I haven’t posted for a while, I’ve done quite a bit of work on climate recently, though it hasn’t been the sort of work that lends itself readily to blog posts. I made a presentation at a workshop session in Erice in the third week of August, which, at Chris Essex’ request, was entitled […]

Lewandowsky’s Backdating

In today’s post, I want to discuss Lewandowsky’s backdating of the blogpost in which he purported to “out” four skeptics, a claim that he re-iterated and embellished in a subsequent academic article, Lewandowsky et al (Fury). In response to a recent FOI request by Simon Turnill, the University of Western Australia stated that, based on […]

Guy Callendar vs the GCMs

As many readers have already surmised, the “GCM-Q” model that visually out-performed the Met Office CMIP5 contribution (HadGEM2) originated with Guy Callendar, and, in particular, Callendar 1938 (QJRMS). My attention was drawn to Callendar 1938 by occasional CA reader Phil Jones (see here and cover blog post by co-author Ed Hawkins here.) See postscript for […]

Results from a Low-Sensitivity Model

Anti-lukewarmers/anti-skeptics have a longstanding challenge to lukewarmers and skeptics to demonstrate that low-sensitivity models can account for 20th century temperature history as well as high-sensitivity models. (Though it seems to me that, examined closely, the supposed hindcast excellence of high-sensitivity models is salesmanship, rather than performance.) Unfortunately, it’s an enormous undertaking to build a low-sensitivity […]

Met Office Hindcast

In a recent post, I noted the discrepancy between the UK Met OFfice contribution to IPCC AR5 and observations (as many others have observed), a discrepancy that is also evident in the “initialized” decadal forecast using the most recent model (HadGEM3). I thought that it would be interesting to examine the HadGEM2 hindcast to see […]

More Met Office Hypocrisy

In yesterday’s post, I observed that Nature’s recent news article on Met Office decadal forecasts failed to show the most recent Met Office decadal forecast and that its inclusion would not have permitted the Nature headline. I also showed the large change from the Met Office submission to IPCC AR5 and their current decadal forecast. […]

Nature-mag Hides the Decline

Earlier this year, David Whitehouse of GWPF drew attention to a striking decrease in the UK Met Office decadal temperature forecast, that had been quietly changed by the Met Office on Christmas Eve. Whitehouse’s article led to some contemporary interest in Met Office decadal forecasts. The Met Office responded (see here); Whitehouse was also challenged […]

Paul Nurse and his Extra-Special Big Boy Pants

As a change from my Briffa reconsideration, I was intrigued by the recent correspondence between Nigel Lawson and Paul Nurse, President of the Royal Society, discussed from time to time at Bishop Hill, most recently here.

Evasions and Fantasy at Real Climate

Several readers have asked me to respond to recent comments about me at Real Climate: briefly, Osborn has made one misrepresentation after another and made statements with seemingly complete indifference as to whether he has any basis for making the claims. In respect to Schmidt’s whinge, as Lucia sagely observed a couple of years ago […]

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