Author Archives: Steve McIntyre

“Unprecedented” Model Discrepancy

Judy Curry recently noted that Phil Jones’ 2014 temperature index (recently the subject of major adjustments in methodology) might be a couple of hundredths of degree higher than a few years ago and alerted her readers to potential environmental NGO triumphalism. Unsurprisingly, it has also been observed in response that the hiatus continues in full force for the […]

Sheep Mountain Update

Several weeks ago,  a new article (open access) on Sheep Mountain (Salzer et al 2014 , Env Res Lett) was published, based on updated (to 2009) sampling at Sheep Mountain. One of the longstanding Climate Audit challenges to the paleoclimate community, dating back to the earliest CA posts, was to demonstrate out-of-sample validity of proxy reconstructions, […]

Anti-SLAPP Hearing Today

Mann v CEI, National Review, Simberg, Steyn and their amici is being argued today. Amici for Steyn, CEI, Simberg and NR include: American Civil Liberties Union, the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press, American Society of News Editors, the Association of Alternative Newsmedia, the Association of American Publishers, Inc., Bloomberg L.P., the Center for […]

New Data and Upside-Down Moberg

I’ve been re-examining SH proxies for some time now, both in connection with PAGES2K and out of intrinsic relevance.  In today’s post, I’ll report on a new (relatively) high-resolution series from  the Arabian Sea offshore Pakistan (Boll et al 2014, Late Holocene primary productivity and sea surface temperature variations in the northeastern Arabian Sea: implications […]

Data Torture in Gergis2K

Reflecting on then current scandals in psychology arising from non-replicable research,  E. Wagenmakers, a prominent social psychologist,  blamed many of the problems on “data torture”.  Wagenmakers attributed many data torture problems on ex post selection of methods. In today’s post, I’ll show an extraordinary example of data torture in the PAGES2K Australasian reconstruction. Wagenmakers on […]

PAGES2K and Nature’s Policy against Self-Plagiarism

Nature’s policies on plagiarism state: Duplicate publication, sometimes called self-plagiarism, occurs when an author reuses substantial parts of his or her own published work without providing the appropriate references. The description of the Australasian network of PAGES2K (coauthors Gergis, Neukom, Phipps and Lorrey) is almost entirely lifted in verbatim or near-verbatim chunks from Gergis et […]

Gergis2K and the Oroko “Disturbance-Corrected” Blade

Only two Gergis proxies (both tree ring) go back to the medieval period: Oroko Swamp, New Zealand and Mt Read, Tasmania, both from Ed Cook.  Although claims of novelty have been made for the Gergis reconstruction, neither of these proxies is “new”, with both illustrated in AR4 and Mt Read being used as early as Mann et […]

Gergis and the PAGES2K Regional Average

The calculation of the PAGES2K regional average contains a very odd procedure that thus far has escaped commentary. The centerpiece of the PAGES2K program was the calculation of regional reconstructions in deg C anomalies. Having done these calculations, most readers would presume that their area weighted average (deg C) would be the weighted average of […]

The Kaufman Tautology

The revised PAGES2K Arctic reconstruction used 56 proxies (down three from the original 59).  Although McKay and Kaufman 2014 didn’t mention the elephant in the room changes in their reconstruction (as discussed at CA here here), they reported with some satisfaction that “decadal-scale variability in the revised [PAGES2K] reconstruction is quite similar to that determined by Kaufman […]

Warmest since, uh, the Medieval Warm Period

The money quote in the PAGES2K abstract was that there wasn’t any worldwide Little Ice Age of Medieval Warm Period and that AD1971-2000 temperatures were the highest in nearly 1400 years, long before the Medieval Period: There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little […]

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