Category Archives: Hurricane

More on Elsner et al 2006

I’m feeling a little less grumpy about blog crashes which were wearing me out. I’ll obviously be commenting on AR4 but I’m not sure where I want to start. While I was researching some material, I came across an interesting comment in James Elsner’s occasional blog (only a few posts per year) about adjustments to […]

Emanuel Article

A thoughtful article by Kerry Emanuel on overall AGW issues here.

East Atlantic Storm-Days

On January 1, in a post entitled Two Curious Hurricane Graphs, I observed that the mean longitude of Atlantic storm measurements had migrated east and that the entire increase in Atlantic storm-days had occurred in the east Atlantic, illustrating the point with several graphics. To my knowledge, neither fact had ever been previously published. I […]

Holland and Webster Jan 2007 PPT

Roger Pielke pointed out that Holland and Webster have presented a PPT presentation posted up at UCAR (the home of IPCC WG1), the content of which is relevant to recent discussions at climateaudit and prometheus. The entire presentation is about data problems relating to storm trends in the eastern Atlantic and to landfall hurricanes, topics […]

Atlantic Hurricane Track Versions

So far I’ve located three slightly different versions of the Atlantic track data: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/tracks1851to2005_atl.txt http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/tracks.atl http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/easyhurdat_5105.html Here are a few boring comments on these data sets for anyone who’s working on them.

More Evidence That Hurricanes Are The Result Of A Poisson Process

Paul Linsay continued his look at the statistics of hurricanes by looking at the entire record, which I present here: I went back and repeated the analysis for the Atlantic hurricane data but this time used all the data back to 1851. There is some question about undercounts prior to 1944 but I ignored that […]

Bob K's Hurricane Image

Here is Bob K’s image of Cat 3 plus hurricanes in three 50-year tranches. Are the changes climatological or methodological?

Hurricane Pinball

I plotted up the tracks of all Atlantic hurricanes with peak winds of at lest 110 knots in time-tranches color-coding the track in 30-knot groups. One thing that intrigued me – it’s probably nothing particular remarkable to specialists – is that many of the big hurricanes had surprisingly similar tracks. Look at the plots below […]

1933

Earlier we noted that the number of hurricane-days in 1933 actually exceeded the number of hurricane-days in 2005. However, the 2005 PDI was significantly higher than 1933 PDI, which indicates fairly trivially that hurricane speeds in 2005 were estimated to be higher than 1933. So here is a histogram of 1933 compared to 2005 wind-speed […]

Paul Linsay's Poisson Fit

Paul Linsay contributes the following: Using Landsea’s data from here, plus counts of 15 and 5 hurricanes in 2005 and 2006 respectively, I plotted up the yearly North Atlantic hurricane counts from 1945 to 2004 and added error bars equal to as is appropriate for counting statistics. The result is in Figure 1. Figure 1. […]

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