Category Archives: Crowley

Almagre – Crowley Style

Crowley and Lowery (2000) still cited quite often purported to show that the MWP was a dog’s breakfast of odds and ends – very different from the Modern Warm Period. The “proof” was the presentation of a hodge podge of proxies, which supposedly did not show a MWP, but did show a Modern Warm Period. […]

IPCC AR4 and the Return of Chucky – He's Baaack!

Here’s something I meant to post up when AR4 came out. I was reminded of this when Rob Wilson posted recently: Lastly, lets not forget that TR based reconstructions of NH temperatures exist that do not use Bristlecone pine or Foxtail data. Rob’s point here is very disingenuous (to use Mann-speak) since millennial reconstructions are […]

Reverse Engineering Hegerl et al.

Lee, a new poster, complained that my attempting to guess the series in the CH-blend was insulting to Hegerl et al. [SM note - This sentence is added on Friday evening. I had a sentence somewhat like this in this post. Lee said that the sentence misrepresented his viewpoints - see one of his posts […]

When is an Upper Confidence Limit a Lower Confidence Limit?

An odd question, you say. It’s not something that usually expect in a statistical study. But hey, this is the Hockey Team, with statistics by Frame of

Crowley Unspliced

As a mindless activity, I’ve re-visited the Crowley data, which we’re discussing. Among other stereotypes, out of 15 series, Crowley uses 2 bristlecones, Polar Urals, Tornetrask and Dunde. Even so, without any grafting, there’s not much hockey-stick-ness to this dataset. When you parse Crowley, you also see some very odd decisions, which result in lowering […]

Mann on Splices: the Case of Crowley and Lowery

Yesterday I waded through a demonstration of a fairly egregious splice of the instrumental record into Crowley’s reconstruction as used in Crowley [2000]. Today I consider the use of the Crowley reconstruction in spaghetti graphs and, in particular, Mann’s statement at realclimate that: No researchers in this field have ever, to our knowledge, "grafted the […]

Splices in Crowley and Lowery

Update: See continued discussion here. I’m working up some material for the AGU convention and re-visited some points in Crowley and Lowery [2000] which I’d not been able to figure out before. (One of Bruce McCullough’s strongest arguments for providing source code is that it reduces the cost of replication studies, since the replicator does […]

Noise in Multiproxy Studies

Someone asked what the graphs in Noise in Jones 1998 would look like for the other multiproxy studies. I speculated that they would probably look similar. In fact, they vary quite a bit. I’ve done plots for Mann and Jones [2003], Esper et al [2002], Crowley and Lowery [2000], Moberg et al [2005] and MBH99. […]

Polar Urals: Shiyatov’s Finnish Academy Article

I’ve written on a number of occasions on Briffa’s Polar Urals reconstruction, which is used in nearly every multiproxy reconstruction, no doubt because of its uniquely cold MWP. It’s one of the key series in Crowley and Lowery [2000] and Jones et al [1998]; it’s not as important in MBH98-99 (which is more or less […]

Crowley on Zhu [1973]

One of the big selling points of Crowley and Lowery [2000] was the “non-synchroneity of temperature change”. One of the key series in showing this was Zhu [1973]. I located Zhu [1973] today. It was great fun, not least for Zhu crediting the teachings of Chairman Mao for inspiring his work. I even reminisce a […]


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