Category Archives: Uncategorized

Sliming by Stokes

Stokes’ most recent post, entitled “What Steve McIntyre Won’t Show You Now”, contains a series of lies and fantasies, falsely claiming that I’ve been withholding MM05-EE analyses from readers in my recent fisking of ClimateBaller doctrines, falsely claiming that I’ve “said very little about this recon [MM05-EE] since it was published” and speculating that I’ve […]

ClimateBallers and the MM05 Simulations

ClimateBallers are extremely suspicious of the MM05 simulation methodology, to say the least.  A recurrent contention is that we should have removed the climate “signal” from the NOAMER tree ring network before calculating parameters for our red noise simulations, though it is not clear how you would do this when you not only don’t know the […]

t-Statistics and the “Hockey Stick Index”

In MM05,  we quantified the “hockeystick-ness” of a series as the difference between the 1902-1980 mean (the “short centering” period of Mannian principal components) and the overall mean (1400-1980), divided by the standard deviation – a measure that we termed its “Hockey Stick Index (HSI)”.  The histograms of its distribution for 10,000 simulated networks (shown in […]

What Nick Stokes Wouldn’t Show You

In MM05, we quantified the hockeystick-ness of simulated PC1s as the difference between the 1902-1980 mean (the “short centering” period of Mannian principal components) and the overall mean (1400-1980), divided by the standard deviation – a measure that we termed its “Hockey Stick Index (HSI)”.  In MM05 Figure 2, we showed histograms of the HSI […]

Mike’s NYT trick

I’m not sure McIntyre knows what ‘splicing’ is.  To me it means cutting and joining two ends together.  All Mann did was plot instrumental temperatures on the same axes, but he showed the whole record. Dana Nuccitelli There still seems to be a lot of confusion among Mann’s few remaining supporters as to why Phil […]

The CEI and NR Reply Briefs

Online here.  CEI     NR

The implications for climate sensitivity of AR5 forcing and heat uptake estimates

A guest post by Nic Lewis When the Lewis & Crok report “A Sensitive Matter” about climate sensitivity in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Working Group 1 report (AR5) was published by the GWPF in March, various people criticised it for not being peer-reviewed. But peer review is for research papers, not for lengthy, wide-ranging review […]

Kevin O’Neill’s “Fraud” Allegations

Over the past year or so, Mann’s “ClimateBall” defenders have taken an increasing interest in trying to vindicate Mannian principal components, the flaws of which Mann himself has never admitted.  Indeed, in Mann’s self-serving Hockey Stick Wars, Mann once again claimed that the defective method was simply an “alternative centering convention”. So far, I’ve taken little […]

Black Tuesday of Climate Science

Today I will review the timeline of the above WMO 1999 graph in the light of the ClimateGate (CG) letters. The main events took place on Tuesday, November 16th, 1999. Things start rolling 9 AM (UK time), when Tim Osborn sends  the new Briffa and recalibrated Jones (1998) time series to Phil Jones along with […]

Inventory of Hide-the-Decline

In a recent post, I reported on the diagram in Jones 1998 (Science), which pushed hide-the-decline a year earlier than my previous inventory. (The Briffa bodge, an earlier technique, dates back to 1992 and Jones 1998 is a sort-of transition from the Briffa bodge to truncation as hide-the-decline technology.) I’ve had a few requests for […]

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