Tag Archives: ammann

Ammann at AGU #2

I’m going to give a fairly brief account of previous attempts to get the residual series and/or cross-validation R2 from Mann, including inquiries to Mann, N.S.F., through Nature, by Climatic Change, by Natuurwetenschap & Techniek and by the House Energy and Commerce Committee. As you will see, no one has been able to get Mann […]

Ammann at AGU: If You Had One Question..

Ammann made a presentation at the same AGU session as me, spending a considerable amount of time criticizing us — though with nothing new to say that we haven’t already rebutted here and in print. There was time for one question (AGU is fanatical about schedules) and I was recognized. So here’s my question to […]

AGU 2005 – #1

The size of the AGU convention is really daunting. Up to Thursday, there were 11,903 attendees. But that doesn’t really portray the size of the presentation effort. Most of those attendees are also presenters. I didn’t see a total of the number of oral and poster presentations, although it would be readily available from AGU. […]

UCAR, Ammann and Wahl and GRL

Several years ago, there was a great controversy at the journal Climate Research regarding the publication of an article by Soon and Baliunas. Three editors, including Hans von Storch, felt that the peer review leading to acceptance of this article was flawed and resigned in protest. I want to compare some of these events to […]

UCAR Webcast of Bradley, Crowley, Ammann – Apr 6, 2005

The webcast of the April 6, 2005 presentations by Bradley, Crowley and Ammann is here. There’s lots that could be said about this presentation. I can only pick off a few points here.

Wahl and Ammann: Some Verification Statistics

I’m now completely file compatible with Wahl and Ammann. In terms of my algorithm, I had to tweak the procedure for scaling RPCs a little, but the RPCs themselves were identical. It took some patience to reconcile differing data setups. I archived results from a complete run-through from their base case a couple of days […]

Wahl-Ammann: More Early Returns

As I discussed previously here, I had been able to quite accurately replicate Mann’s temperature principal components (the first 16 of which have been archived for a long time). Notwithstanding that these calculations can actually be replicated quite accurately, Wahl and Ammann calculated new reference temperature PCs using annual data on the basis that they […]

Wahl and Amman: The Early Returns

I’m progressing nicely with the process of parsing Ammann. The correlation between our AD1400 emulations of the MBH98 reconstructed PC1 is 0.9993201! See illustration below. The emulations are virtually identical up to scaling/centering. W-A do not use archived MBH temperature PCs, but re-calculate them; this appears to account for scaling differences identified so far (and […]

Journal Submissions on MM05

So far there have been 4 Comments submitted to GRL on our paper, including Wahl and Amman which is 4th in the queue, plus the WA submission to Climatic Change. Se we’re being noticed. The GRL format for a Comment is 50% of the length of the original article, with an equal length allocated to […]

Wahl and Amman #2

Here are some first thoughts. So far I don’t see anything in W-A that affects any of our results. Indeed, I expect that W-A is going to be very positive for this debate, as the points at issue are going to be narrowed sufficiently closely that any people actually interested in the results (as opposed […]


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