Tag Archives: Confidence interval

A New Caramilk Secret

Jean S, UC and I spent a considerable amount of time a couple of years ago, trying to figure out how MBH99 confidence intervals were calculated – see here. I asked the NAS panel to investigate the matter, but they failed to do so. After their report, I asked NAS president Cicerone to merely write […]

The Santer "S.D."

Lucia has written an interesting post – see here, continuing the effort to figure out the Santer brainteaser. I can shed a little more light (I think) on what Santer’s “S.D” is in operational terms. I was able to replicate Santer’s Table III values using the line item from Table 1 entitled “Inter-model_S.D._T2LT” which is […]

Resolving the Santer Problem

In today’s post, I think that I’ve developed an interesting approach to the Santer problem, which represents a substantial improvement to the analyses of either the Santer or Douglas posses. I think that the approach proposed here is virtually identical to Jaynes’ approach to analyzing the difference between two means, as set out in the […]


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