Tag Archives: hegerl

The “Disputed” Reconstruction

It will take a while to parse Muir Russell. They’ve been working on it for 7 months and I’ve had it for a day. I’m going to place up notes on things as I notice them. At some point, I’ll try to pull together a longer response, but there are lots of interesting things as […]

Boulton’s Climategate Associates

Two of Boulton’s close associates at the University of Edinburgh (see Bishop Hill here – scientists hired as professors in 2007 while Boulton was a very senior professor in the same department – are Climategate correspondents. In the searchable anelegantchaos version, Hegerl gets 41 hits; Gabi 29 hits and Crowley (her husband, also an Edinburgh […]

The Boulton Hockey Stick

Following (below left) is the Hockey Stick diagram endorsed by Geoffrey Boulton, General Secretary of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, in their December 2009 (post-Climategate) Policy Advice statement Climate Change and the U.N Copenhagen Summit here. On the right is a confirmation plot from data archived in late 2009 and February 2010 by Boulton’s associate […]

More on Hegerl et al 2006 Non-Confidence Intervals

There are a few other blogs that from time to time do detailed analyses of what people are doing, not dissimilar in format to what I do. Last year, in Apr 2006 shortly after publication, I observed here that the upper and lower confidence intervals of Hegerl et al crossed over. In Feb 2007, Tapio […]

More on "Naturally Orthogonal"

I realize that not all CA readers are interested in multivariate methods and that dendroclimatologists want to “forget the math”, but I find it interesting to try to relate dendro and paleoclimate recipes to known statistical methodologies that you can read about in texts. I commented the other day on the form of Principal Components […]

IPCC and Data Access

One of the most important IPCC representations is the supposedly tremendous quality control of its review process. I’ve mentioned in passing on a number of occasions that, when I sought to obtain supporting data for then unpublished articles, IPCC threatened to expel me as a reviewer. I’ve had a few requests to recount my experience […]

My Hegerl Predictions – Results

The reconstruction in Hegerl et al (J Clim) was previously used in Hegerl et al (Nature) which provided some information on the number of series and some other particulars, but did not identify the series. In order to show how farcical the Hockey Team claims of “independence” were, I made guesses last spring about the […]

Hegerl Proxies: #1 – Mann PC1

The Hegerl et al 2006 climate reconstruction is finally online here . I’m going to go through the proxies individually before talking about method. Obviously the first one to look for is Mann’s North American PC1. Although they say that they’ve “moved on”, Mann’s PC1 was used in Osborn and Briffa 2006 and was one […]

Hegerl et al in this week's Nature

There’s a new study by Hegerl et al. in this week’s Nature, which, among other things, describes the performance of something called the CH-blend, a secret blend of 12 proxies – a secret somewhere up there with the Caramilk secret. As I mentioned previously, I requested the identity of the sites in the blend as […]

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