Hansen’s twin pit bulls, Tamino and Gavin, have launched into a spirited defence of Mannian paleo-phrenology at realclimate here, with a counter-discussion at Bishop Hill here.
Tag Archives: MBH98
Date: 16 Nov 1999, Phil I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline. Date: 22 Dec 2004, mike No researchers in this field have ever, to our knowledge, “grafted […]
I’ve posted in the past on the mystery of MBH confidence interval calculations, especially the mysterious MBH99 confidence intervals (another Caramilk secret). In our NAS panel presentation and perhaps before, I’d speculated that MBH98 confidence intervals, rotundly described in MBH98 as “self-consistently estimated” were nothing other than twice the standard error of the (overfitted) calibration […]
MBH98 and subsequent Mannian papers (MBH99, Rutherford et al , 2005) report briefly that they tested calibration residuals (not verification residuals) for normality and whiteness. These results are used to calculate confidence intervals. They do not use typical tests for whiteness e.g. Ljung-Box portmanteau statistic used not just in econometrics, but also in climate e.g. […]
David Appell has posted up an exchange in Scientific American in response to his hagiography of Michael Mann. Here are some comments on Appell’s points.
At present, I’m having trouble figuring out what on earth is going on with MBH confidence intervals. Here is a figure showing the one-sigma confidence intervals in MBH98 (cyan) and MBH99 (salmon). Figure 1. MBH98 and MBH99 one-sigma by calculation step. Cyan – MBH98; salmon – MBH99. Solid black – CRU std dev; dashed red […]
I’ve been looking at MBH98 confidence interval estimation. There are many puzzles as to methodology. Here I’ll touch on some archiving oddities. Figure 1. Standard deviation of MBH98 Reconstruction Steps