Tag Archives: pages2k

The Kaufman Tautology

The revised PAGES2K Arctic reconstruction used 56 proxies (down three from the original 59).  Although McKay and Kaufman 2014 didn’t mention the elephant in the room changes in their reconstruction (as discussed at CA here here), they reported with some satisfaction that “decadal-scale variability in the revised [PAGES2K] reconstruction is quite similar to that determined by Kaufman […]

Warmest since, uh, the Medieval Warm Period

The money quote in the PAGES2K abstract was that there wasn’t any worldwide Little Ice Age of Medieval Warm Period and that AD1971-2000 temperatures were the highest in nearly 1400 years, long before the Medieval Period: There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little […]

The Third Warmest Arctic Century

PAGES2K (2013) unequivocally stated that the Arctic was “warmest during the 20th century”: The Arctic was also warmest during the twentieth century, although warmer during 1941–1970 than 1971–2000 according to our reconstruction. McKay and Kaufman 2014 did not withdraw or amend the above statement, instead reporting that the revision amplified the cooling trend prior to […]

Millennial Quebec Tree Rings

In today’s post, I’m going to discuss an important new 1000-year chronology from northern treeline spruce in Quebec (Gennaretti et al 2014, PNAS here).  The chronology is interesting on multiple counts.  This is the first Quebec northern treeline chronology to include the medieval warm period.  Second, it provides a long overdue crosscheck against the Jacoby-D’Arrigo chronologies (including […]

New Article on Igaliku

Shortly after the publication of PAGES2K, I pointed out that the Igaliku lake sediment proxy, had been contaminated by modern agricultural runoff. The post attracted many comments. Nick Stokes vigorously opposed the surmise that the Igaliku series had been contaminated by modern agriculture and/or that such contamination should have been taken into account by Kaufman […]

PAGES2K vs the Hanhijarvi Reconstruction

The PAGES2K (2013) Arctic reconstruction of Kaufman et al has attracted considerable attention as a non-Mannian hockey stick. However, it’s been fraught with problems since day one, including a major re-statement of results in August 2014 (McKay and Kaufman, 2014 pdf), in which Kaufman conceded (without direct acknowledgement) Climate Audit criticism that their results had been […]

Okshola: which way is up?

The recent revisions to PAGES2K included a dramatic flipping of the Hvitarvatn varve series to the opposite orientation used in the 2013 version used in IPCC AR5. Together with other changes (such as a partial – but still incomplete – removal of contaminated sediments from the Igaliku series), this unwound most of the previous difference […]

Revisions to Pages2K Arctic

Kaufman and the PAGES2K Arctic2K group recently published a series of major corrections to their database, some of which directly respond to Climate Audit criticism. The resulting reconstruction has been substantially revised with substantially increased medieval warmth. His correction of the contaminated Igaliku series is unfortunately incomplete and other defects remain.

A New Alaskan d18O Series

PAGES2K Arctic introduced a lake sediment d18O series from Kepler Lake, Alaska that hadn’t been used in previous studies. Although O18 data is a workhorse of paleoclimate, O18 data from Alaska (or, for that matter, anywhere in the Arctic hemisphere between 90E and 90W – going east) is very scarce. Thus, the appearance of a […]

Varved Inconsistency

Since AR4, there have been a series of new multiproxy studies, several of which were cited in AR5 (Mann et al 2008; Ljungqvist et al 2010; Christiansen and Ljungqvist 2012; Shi et al 2013). A distinctive feature of these and other recent multiproxy studies is the incorporation of varve thickness and near-equivalent mass accumulation rate […]


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