Tag Archives: Statistics

Deconstructing the Steig AWS Reconstruction

So how did Steig et al. calculate the AWS reconstruction? Since we don’t have either the satellite data or the exact path they followed using the RegEM Matlab files, we can’t say for sure how the results were obtained. However, using a little mathemagic, we can actually take the sequences apart and then calculate reconstructed […]

More on Voodoo Correlations

Mann said: Although 484 (~40%) pass the temperature screening process over the full (1850–1995) calibration interval, one would expect that no more than ~150 (13%) of the proxy series would pass the screening procedure described above by chance alone. Reader DC said: Of the 484 proxies passing the 1850-1995 significance test, 342 also passed both […]

More Stupid Pet Tricks

Yesterday I left my exposition of Mannian CPS just before trying to do a NH composite. There was another stupid pet trick left, that made replication of this step a little trickier than one would think. UC had sent me a file entitled NHmean.txt (which I’ve placed online), which was produced during gridboxcps.m, and proved […]

This Gets Even More Amusing

Can anyone on the Team actually hit a target? A couple of days ago, I reported that Santer’s own method yielded failed t-tests on UAH when data up to 2008 (or even 2007) was used. I also reported that their SI (carried out in 2008) included a sensitivity test on their H1 hypothesis up to […]

The Santer "S.D."

Lucia has written an interesting post – see here, continuing the effort to figure out the Santer brainteaser. I can shed a little more light (I think) on what Santer’s “S.D” is in operational terms. I was able to replicate Santer’s Table III values using the line item from Table 1 entitled “Inter-model_S.D._T2LT” which is […]

Resolving the Santer Problem

In today’s post, I think that I’ve developed an interesting approach to the Santer problem, which represents a substantial improvement to the analyses of either the Santer or Douglas posses. I think that the approach proposed here is virtually identical to Jaynes’ approach to analyzing the difference between two means, as set out in the […]

Nature’s Statistical Checklist for Authors

Nature’s Guide to Authors includes an excellent statistical checklist which authors are asked to comply with to "ensure statistical adequacy". I’ve reproduced the checklist below, bolding a couple of interesting criteria. Readers of this blog can readily imagine how this checklist would apply to MBH98 or, for that matter to Moberg et al [2005]. One […]

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