This is a guest post by Ross McKitrick. Tim Vogelsang and I have a new paper comparing climate models and observations over a 55-year span (1958-2012) in the tropical troposphere. Among other things we show that climate models are inconsistent with the HadAT, RICH and RAOBCORE weather balloon series. In a nutshell, the models not only […]
Tag Archives: vogelsang
I’m going to Cornell University on Nov. 17 at the invitation to give a lecture to Sinan Unur’s economics policy class on my adventures in climate. Oddly enough, I’ve never given a presentation to a university class in my life. It wasn’t something that you did in math classes in the olden days. My only […]
I’ve been posting up on some fundamental articles on spurious regression, involving autocorrelated processes. Here are some illustrations of what different examples look like, with specific comment on a realclimate article.
A couple of days ago, I pointed out that the satellite GLB series could be modeled very well as a ARMA (1,1) model with parameters of AR1 = 0.9215 and MA1= -0.3185. I’ve gotten increasingly interested in ARMA (1,1) models with very high (>0.9 AR1 coefficients.) Vogelsang  has some tables showing some very unexpected […]