The Rahmstorf et al reconstruction commences in AD900 even though the Mann et al 2009 reconstruction goes back to AD500. Once again, this raises the obvious question: why didn’t Rahmstorf show values before AD900? Are these results adverse to his claims? Once the question is posed, you can guess the answer.

Most CA readers are aware that proxy reconstructions use linear methods and that, accordingly, all the huffing and puffing of complicated multivariate methodologies simply end up assigning a vector of weights. Surprisingly this obvious point was not understood by paleos when I started in this field. Because one can assign a vector of weights, it’s […]

Some of the CA posts that I’ve found most interesting to write have been about identifying Chladni patterns in supposedly “significant” reconstructions when principal component methods have been applied to spatially autocorrelated red noise. (This is by no means a new observation, as warnings about the risks of building “castles in the air” using principal […]

Gavin Schmidt and others have claimed that the M08 usage of the Tiljander sediments didn’t ‘matter’, because they could “get’ a series that looked somewhat similar without the sediments. They’ve usually talked around the impact of the Tiljander series on the no-dendro reconstruction. But there are two pieces of information on this. A figure added […]

Many CA readers know a lot about regression and quite a bit about principal components, but I dare say that a much fewer number are familiar with Truncated Total Least Squares (to which the regpar parameter belongs.) We’re seeing interesting interactions between PC=k and regpar=r – and there is little, if anything, in regular statistical […]

Let’s continue Mann 2008 – Replication with EIV. To run regreclow.m and regrechigh.m you’ll need files climate, eofnumb, and proxyN, where N runs from 1 to 19. I’ve run prepinputforrecon.m with required folder structure (C:\holocene\s1\zuz10\work1\temann\ etc.) in my computer. After that I did run regrechigh.m in folder C:\holocene\s1\zuz10\work1\temann\zzrecon1209\nhnhscrihad\highf and regreclow.m in folder C:\holocene\s1\zuz10\work1\temann\zzrecon1209\nhnhscrihad\lowf The regem […]

Standardization in Mannian algorithms is always a bit of an adventure. The bias towards bristlecones and HS-shaped series from the impact of Mann’s short segment standardization on his tree ring PCs has been widely publicized. Smerdon’s demonstration of defects in Rutherford et al 2005, Mann et al 2005 and Mann et al 2007 all relate […]

Do not post anything other than programming comments. Absolutely no piling on please.

When Wahl and Ammann’s script first came out, I was able to immediately reconcile our results to theirs – see here. As Wegman later said: when using the same proxies as and the same methodology as MM, Wahl and Ammann essentially reproduce the MM curves. Thus, far from disproving the MM work, they reinforce the […]

In the MBH source code, they apply steps that purport to weight the temperature PCs in their regression calculations proportional to their eigenvalues. Comments on their code say: c set specified weights on data … c weights on PCs are proportional to their singular values This is one of two weighting procedures in MBH for […]