Yesterday, Science sent me 13 Esper site chronologies, all standardized using RCS methods, one of which is the updated Polar Urals site. It’s hard to think of a better testing ground for Rob’s argument that the variance of the Polar Urals series disqualified it and mandated the substitution of the hugely hockey-stick shaped Yamal series. See http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=541
In the spirit of spaghetti graphs, I have calculated 101-year moving variances for all 13 Esper sites, along the lines of Rob’s graph. I then scaled them all to have a mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1 . Here’s what I got, with the Polar Urals series shown in heavy black. Using the dendroclimatological statistical technique of "eyeballing", I do not observe any reason why the Polar Urals series is particularly problematic.
Figure 1. Spaghetti graph of 101-year moving standard deviations (scaled).
The red series caught my eye as it seemed to have a lot of similarity to the Polar Urals series in range. So I’ve plotted it and the Polar Urals series below. Guess what it was – the usual companion to Polar Urals: Tornetrask. So the variance at Polar Urals does not seem at all unusual relative to Tornetrask.
Figure 1. Non-spaghetti graph of 101-year moving standard deviations (scaled) for Polar Urals and Tornetrask.