Here is the (big) change in correlation as the Emanuel data are progressively smoothed, 0x, 1x, 2x. (Here I exclude the endpoints, which is what one ought to do.) cor(SST,PDI) [1] 0.5050575 cor(SST.1,PDI.1) [1] 0.6278249 cor(SST.2,PDI.2) [1] 0.7484223 Square those to obtain r^2. Here are two graphs of Emanuel’s SST and PDI, showing the effect … Continue reading more bender on Emanuel