1: forecasting using Earth weather/climate models

2: forecasting solar activity [e.g. using my method), then using the [weak] solar-climate connection, forecasting the climate from the forecast solar activity

3: using the LOD to forecast solar activity, then the solar-climate connection to forecast climate [or rather long-term weather {next year}]

4: tossing a coin

Take your pick. With 4 you’ll be correct half of the time. I’m not so sure about the others.

]]>I’ve seen you refer to the sun’s weak effects on climate (and therefore biological proxies of climate), but I haven’t seen the question posed per se (haven’t reviewed all your thousands of comments, so please forgive a topic you’ve either dealt with or dismissed): have you seen evidences of solar cycles represented in any long-term dendrochronological record?

]]>552 (EW): although there are theoretical reasons for a LOD link to climate and to solar, I agree that the latter is weak [as almost any solar connection to climate]. I would not base my future purchases of heating oil on any of these forecasts.

Well, this looks to be a better basis for predicting my purchases than tossing a coin. It seem right up to April, 2008. Do you know of a better way of predicting?

]]>Thanks for the details. There’s no problem with SORCE as it offers a TOA set. I think I was only able to find a 1 AU data set for ACRIM though. I can’t even remember offhand as I haven’t had time for a couple of weeks to even work on this project. ]]>

Y = year

M = month

D = day

if M=1 or 2: Y = Y-1, M=M+12

A = int(Y/100)

B = 2 – A + int(A/4)

then

JD = int(365.25*(Y+4716)) + int(30.6001*(M+1)) + D + B – 1524.5

The difference between JD and JDE [ephemeris time, is of the order of 100 seconds and can be ignored]. ]]>

I didn’t get to read Dr. Loebert’s theory in 537 but surely it was not more worthy of a snip than 561.

]]>What is the method used to extract the orbital position modulation of the TOA from the data, used either for SORCE or for ACRIM (which is the one I need since SORCE already has it)? Is it just a daily orbital position correction from 1AU? That’s nice for analyzing the sun but it’s a royal pain trying to deal with that when concerning actual TOA incident radiation.

The orbital modulation does not have to be added to the actual TOA data. TOA includes the modulation and is what is actually observed and is what we should use when studying the Earth. For studying the sun, we simply divide by the square of the distance to the sun in AU. No pain at all. Of course, you need to know what the distance, R, is. Here is a formula to calculate R:

First express time, t, in Julian millennia from the epoch J2000.0 as

t = (JDE – 2451545.0)/365250, where JDE is the Julian Ephemeris Day [find out yourself to calculate that – try google], then

R = R[0] + R[1]*t + R[2]*t^2 + …

Each of the R[n]’s is itself a series of cycles [the ancient Greeks would delight in this – we today still use a form of their epicycles] as follows:

R[n] = sum{i=1 and up}(A[n,i] * cos(B[n,i]+C[n,i]*t))

The coefficients B and C are in radians.

Here are the more significant values:

for R[0]:

i=1 : A=1.00014 B=0 C=0

i=2 : A=0.01671 B=3.09846 C=6283.07585

i=3 : A=0.00014 B=3.05525 C=12566.1517

i=4 : A=0.00003 B=5.19850 C=77713.7715

for R[1]:

i=1 : A=0.00103 B=1.10749 C=6283.07585

for R[2]:

i=1 : A=0.00004 B=5.78460 C=6283.07585

Higher terms are not needed for TSI corrections [Modern theory goes to dozens of epicycles]