I’m back from Italy and just wrote a post summarizing the trip. Unfortunately the blog crashed when I went to post it and I’ll have to re-write the post.
Anyhow, we had a great trip. I see that Mann et al have a welcome-home present for us. I see that there are press releases announcing the article before it’s even available online. And while mongabay.com was given a preprint, it seems that climateaudit.org wasn’t. I wonder why.
Climate Audit 
11 Comments
Welcome back, I for one cannot wait to see what you make of Dr Mann and his efforts!
You mean this? I note the true believers are already claiming it is some kind of refutation of previous hockeystick debunking. If they don’t use tree-rings, it would seem to be utter vindication rather than a refutation.
Welcome back Steve. For my part, I’m hoping that, instead of the usual sequence of events, this new Mann paper is an occasion for the paleoclimate community to show it has learned to ask the right questions, rather than waiting for outsiders to do it for them.
(Sad that the blog crashed when you posted… clearly significant. No crashes while you were out. How can a blog be allergic to its owner? 🙂 )
Hope we can nail it soon.
And GRL08 ( http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/shared/articles/MannGRL08.pdf ) is the prologue. Tried this new smoother ( http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/smoothing08/lowpassadaptive.m ) with HadCRUT monthly and f=0.0104,
[smoothedbest,w0,w1,w2,msebest] = lowpassadaptive(HadM, 0.0104);
got this figure,
But the weights are [w0 w1 w2]
ans =
0.4100 0 0.5500
Surprisingly, this does not agree with the text, where constraint sum(w_j)=1 is specified. I guess there’s something wrong with Mann’s exhaustive search,
I hope he will fix this soon.
Can anyone surmise why a paper published in 2008 and purporting to show that “A reconstruction of surface temperatures over the past two thousand years provides further evidence that the northern hemisphere is now warmer than at any time in at least 1300 years.” should contain a spaghetti graph terminating in the year 2000, nearly a decade ago ?
Beggin’ your pardon, sir…
the only “wonder” is why you wonder why.
I see elsewhere that they are now adjusting the sunspot numbers to make the answers come out right.
Welcome back Steve…. hope both the conference and your trip/vacation were enjoyable.
It would be nice if Ross was right (above) and the Team has learned a little more about proper scientific research and use of the scientific method. But, in reading the first few comments on the Mongabay blog relative to Mann’s new paper, things don’t look too hopeful. We await with bated breath your analysis of the paper when it becomes available.
Joe
write your work into wordpad or similar than cut and paste to the blog
Hehe; no you don’t.
But it did remind me of the following:
I wonder why, I wonder why,
I wonder why I wonder…
I wonder why I wonder why,
I wonder why I wonder
(Richard Feynman, ca. 1938)
To get back on topic, I too look forward to your analysis of The Team’s data & methodology when/if it becomes available (maybe after they locate those missing eight years that are supposed to be so anomalously warm – already it’s looking shaky).
Rural Italy is turning more and more fashionable with tourists. Tuscany is particularly nice-looking with hilly and mountainous topography in much of the area. There are graceful valleys too and attractive Tuscan farm houses.