Here’s another model output oddity that I noticed from a plot and confirmed with a direct screensave. In January 2100, the SH values for an NCAR PCM run, as archived at KNMI, (expressed as an anomaly here) jumps 2.5 deg C from 0.3 deg C to 2.81 deg C, before relaxing to lower values over […]
According to KNMI’s version of UKMO CM3, in March 2106, the tropics (20S-20N) will temporarily have an inhospitable temperature of 0.1E21. In a statement, the Hadley Center said that these results showed that the situation was “worse than we thought”. In an interview, Stefan Rahmstorf said that not only was it worse than we thought, […]
Since the publication of Rahmstorf et al 2007, a highly influential comparison of models to observations, David Stockwell has made a concerted effort to figure out how Rahmstorf smoothing worked. I now have a copy of the program and have worked through the linear algebra. It turns out that Rahmstorf has pulled an elaborate practical […]
Figures: Top: Eastern Pacific Warming (EPW) Atlantic storm tracks for seasons indicated on the plot. EPW is the “traditional El Nino”. Bottom left: Central Pacific Warming (CPW) or the “new” El Nino described in the paper and right: Eastern Pacific Cooling or La Nina. Track legend: [TS,Hurr,Major,Cat5]:[blue,green,red,pink] A new paper by Kim, Webster, and Curry […]
Quite aside from the realclimatescientistsmoothingalgorithmparameterselectioncontroversy, another interesting aspect of Figure 3 of the Copnhagen Synthesis Report is the cone of model projections. Today I’ll show you how to do a similar comparison for an AR4 model of your choice. Unlike Rahmstorf, I’ll show how this is done, complete with turnkey code. I realize that this […]
Many CA readers have probably been checking out some interesting post at Lucia’s about Stefan Rahmstorf’s opportunistic smoothing of temperature observations in Copenhagen. See here here and here at Lucia’s. Also see David Stockwell’s recent post here and his recent E&E paper on Rahmstorf et al (Science 2007) (Rahmstorf here). Also see the recent Copenhagen […]
Climate Audit 