So let’s stick to MMH10. Sorry about that.

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MMH10 looked at mean and variance of the trend of the multi-model-means (inter-model or across-models) and compared that with the mean and variance of various observational data sets.

Chad and I are looking at the mean and variance of the trends of individual models and comparing that with the mean and variance of various observational data sets.

McIntyre in this post is looking at the mean and variance between the trends of multiple runs of a single model (intra-model mean or within-group mean). This shows that the modeled trends output are relatively insensitive to the perturbations of the intial conditions used in the CMIP4 runs.

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Is that a fair summary?

]]>According to MMH10, UAH and RSS also have significantly different trends. ]]>

Have you addressed the issues around the ensemble of models elsewhere? If so can you point to a link? I don’t want to distract from the substance of this post. ]]>