In addition to Lewandowsky using fake data, many of Lewandowsky’s results, including the result in his title, are fake as well. Lewandowsky’s claimed yesterday that their “results withstand skeptical scrutiny”, but this claim is untrue .
Impact on Adherence
Next here is the proportion adherence by skydragon-skeptic-warmist according to Lewandowsky’s yesterday “doesn’t matter” post. The horizontal line showing the proportion of warmists in the count restricted (As noted elsewhere, the proportion of warmists in a survey of respondents from Deltoid and Tamino seems low to me, but that’s a different story.)
Removing the outliers (which removes the most grotesque fake responses, but not all of them), Lewandowsky’s signature conspiracies (MLK, Moon, 9/11) – all of which have negligible adherence – are now disproportionally held by warmists.
Figure 1. Proportion of conspiracy adherence in survey, excluding “outliers” according to Lewandowsky’s yesterday post (“net”. Aarmist – pink; “skeptic” (CO2TempUp agree, CO2HasNegChange disagree); skydragon (CO2TempUp disagree) – cyan. Horizontal line shows warmist proportion of total survey.
Now here is the corresponding figure for the gross counts, prior to removing the “outliers”. It is evident that, even after removal of only the most grotesque responses, the proportion of purported adhence by skeptics has changed. Lewandowsky’s claims that his results “withstand scrutiny” are as bogus as everything in else in this study.
Claims in the Article
Multiple results from the article – already questionable in the first place – do not survive the elementary step of removing the most obvious scams.
Consider first the eponymous asasertion in the title:
NASA faked the moon landing|Therefore (Climate) Science is a Hoax:
Only one “skeptic” in the revised dataset purported to believe the Moon conspiracy, while 4 “warmists” purported to believe in it. (All 5 responses are probably fake.) Aside from the lack of statistical significance, the eponymous claim of the title is fake.
Lewandowsky more “formally” stated:
We additionally show that endorsement of a cluster of conspiracy theories (e.g., that the CIA killed Martin-Luther King or that NASA faked the moon landing) predicts rejection of climate science as well as the rejection of other scientic findings, above and beyond endorsement of laissez-faire free markets.
Again bogus. The proportional adherence to the Moon conspiracy and the MLK conspiracy in the revised dataset is higher among warmists than among “skeptics”. Endorsement of these conspiracies, if anything, “predicts” that the respondent is a warmist.
the belief that AIDS was created by the government is likely accompanied by the conviction that the FBI killed Martin Luther King or that the Air Force is hiding evidence of extraterrestrial visitors (Goertzel, 1994; Swami, Chamorro-Premuzic, & Furnham, 2009).
No skeptics in the revised dataset purport to believe in the AIDS conspiracy.
then beliefs such as that NASA faked the moon landing may predict rejection of a range of scientic propositions, from HIV/AIDS to climate change.
There are only 5 adherents of the Moon conspiracy in the revised dataset, of which 4 are warmists.
Nor does the restriction of one pattern of outliers, as proposed in the Lewandowsky post yesterday, magically cure the failure to make the slightest attempt at data integrity in the first place. Not all scammers did so by pretending to believe in multiple goofy conspiracies. That was one pattern of scamming, but others appear to be present.
None of these results were presented in Lewandowsky’s post yesterday.
Appendix: Here is a barplot showing a simple conspiracy count for “skeptics” (here including skydragons as defined in my previous post) both before and after the restriction defined in Lewandowsky’s post yesterday (here for the 13 conspiracies excluding CO2). Lewandowsky’s restriction removed respondents purporting to hold an extremely high number of conspiracies:
The restricted skeptic count for CYAIDS is now 0; it was only 4 before. The restricted skeptic count for CYMoon is now 1 (gross – 4). For the other two signature Lewandowsky conspiracies, CYMLK is now 8 (gross- 10) and CY911 is now 4 (gross – 11).