If the time period had extended back to (say) the 1930s, I suspect the findings would have been completely different. ]]>

George,

There is a peer reviewed article that will appear in the journal “Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans” that proves that global climate and weather models are based on the wrong dynamical system of equations. Thus any conclusions based on those models are not reliable (to say the least).

I hvae earlier provided an example on this site that shows that if one is allowed to choose the forcing in any time dependent system, even if it has nothing to do with reality, one can produce any solution one wants. In particular one can reproduce historical data with the wrong model.

Jerry

]]>Papers with ‘some Maths’ need to be reviewed, or even coauthored, by Mathematicians with skills in the appropriate subset of Mathematics, not just those within the discipline of the paper.

As a Physics undergraduate, it was emphasised that our Maths lectures were being given by someone from the Department of Mathematics, not by our own department.

At the time, I thought what’s the difference?

The difference is that a Mathematician is an independent mind, focused on the Maths, with less chance of collusion, (we expect).

There are so many instances where this would have avoided a ‘mistake’, or even the paper from being written.

Maybe I’m wrong, but given the inaccuracy of early coronavirus modelling, it seems only reasonable that climate models should be viewed with greater uncertainty.

The coronavirus models were based on timescales of just a few days, a few weeks or at most two months. These models have demonstrated the limitations of modeling, or maybe more accurately the limitations of modelers to develop reliable models.

]]>foia.org appears to have been hacked or possible lapsed and taken over by a (Chinese?) website about epilepsy.

]]>That’s amazingly pathetic, even by Mann’s standards.

At the very minimum, it’s “tone-deaf.”

]]>Ray, there was also a large decrease in the amount of fossil fuels used during the great depression, but no measured decrease nor deceleration in CO2 concentration from the Ice cores drilled at Antarctica.

I can provide the data for anyone who is interested.

]]>COVID19 Effect on CO2 levels

An analysis of recent CO2 levels in the light of drastic reductions in industrial activity. Guess what? CO2 did not go down!

]]>Can you audit Ferguson et al (2019), which is influencing UK govt policy?

Potential problems include a too-high case fatality rate and assumption of constant critical care capacity rather than a capacity that scales up fairly rapidly.

Ferguson recently acknowledged: “I’m conscious that lots of people would like to see and run the pandemic simulation code we are using to model control measures against COVID-19. To explain the background – I wrote the code (thousands of lines of undocumented C) 13+ years ago to model flu pandemics…”

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