Search Results for: Hockey stick

t-Statistics and the “Hockey Stick Index”

In MM05,  we quantified the “hockeystick-ness” of a series as the difference between the 1902-1980 mean (the “short centering” period of Mannian principal components) and the overall mean (1400-1980), divided by the standard deviation – a measure that we termed its “Hockey Stick Index (HSI)”.  The histograms of its distribution for 10,000 simulated networks (shown in […]

The Hockey Stick in Art and Literature

One of Josh’s finest graphic flourishes: (h/t Bishop Hill and WUWT)

The Hockey Stick and the Milankovitch Theory

The 20th century warming counters a millennial-scale cooling trend which is consistent with long-term astronomical forcing. MBH99 According to the UMass researchers, the 1,000-year reconstruction reveals that temperatures dropped an average of 0.02 degrees Celsius per century prior to the 20th century. This trend is consistent with the “astronomical theory” of climate change, which considers […]

Spot the Hockey Stick #n+…

The UNEP CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE COMPENDIUM 2009 on page 5 uses the following graph from Wikipedia (not the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report): CO2 concentration and mean global temperature during the past millennium. CO2 levels (blue line, lefthand axis) are given in parts per million, temperatures (red line, right-hand axis) in degrees Celsius. Source: Hanno 2009 […]

Spot the Hockey Stick #n

In a presentation on April 7, 2009, Steven Chu uses the Graybill strip-bark bristlecone chronology (aka the Mann hockey stick) in a presentation. See page 7 here. (h/t to reader Gene). The Chu graphic even uses Mann’s overlay of temperatures, opportunistically ending at the high point of 1998. I wonder how Chu does at identifying […]

David Holland on the Hockey Stick Affair

David Holland has a new and interesting article entiitled “Bias And Concealment In The IPCC Process: The “Hockey-Stick” Affair And Its Implications” in which the proprietor of this blog is mentioned on occasion.

Spot the Hockey Stick #17: Lloyds of London

Following the discussion on insurers, RMS and climate change, someone pointed out that Lloyds of London also quotes a certain reconstruction of past temperatures. It wasn’t on the front page, but it wasn’t difficult to spot. From the document linked as “Adapt or Bust” but included as part of a document on “Catastrophe” as part […]

SPM4 Preview: The Hockey Stick Lives

Andrew Weaver in an article here says of the SPM: “This isn’t a smoking gun; climate is a batallion of intergalactic smoking missiles.” Wow. Even better than Space Invaders. There was a big front page preview of the SPM in the Toronto Globe and Mail today here all of which is worth reading, but for […]

Spot the Hockey Stick #15: NOAA and a reply to Jerry Pournelle

(John A): On Jerry Pournelle’s fascinating weblog, a poster has mentioned Steve McIntyre’s expanded horizons into the world of multiproxy studies and the revealing reply to the NAS Panel by D’Arrigo in praise of cherrypicking proxies because "that’s what you have to do if you want to make cherry pie". Jerry responds: The basis assumption […]

Hockey Stick Studies

MM Published Articles McIntyre and McKitrick, Energy & Environment, 2003 MM03 SI McIntyre and McKitrick, GRL 2005a SI McIntyre and McKitrick, E&E 2005b SI McIntyre and McKitrick 2005c, Reply to Von Storch and Zorita McIntyre and McKitrick 2005d, Reply to Huybers, GRL Presentations McIntyre, S., 2004, Verification of multi-proxy paleoclimatic studies: a case study, AGU […]