Here is the (big) change in correlation as the Emanuel data are progressively smoothed, 0x, 1x, 2x. (Here I exclude the endpoints, which is what one ought to do.) cor(SST,PDI) [1] 0.5050575 cor(SST.1,PDI.1) [1] 0.6278249 cor(SST.2,PDI.2) [1] 0.7484223 Square those to obtain r^2. Here are two graphs of Emanuel’s SST and PDI, showing the effect […]

Here’s Willis’ most recent summary of the ongoing dialogue on the Emanuel story.

This continues the previous post which is overweight in comments.

Posted for bender. bender writes: Attached are analyses of Willis’s landfalling hurricane data in post # 35. Interesting facts: 1. 1974-2005 trend is "n.s." (Note 95% confidence intervals now present.) 2. PACs for lag 10 and 20 are marginally significant. (Recall that for total # hurricanes lag 5 and 10 were sig. It is as […]

Here’s bender’s plot of the number of hurricanes, showing the difference between plotting on an annual and boxed basis. There are statistical issues in fitting trend lines to spiky data like this, which bender is well aware of and pointed out in the predecessor thread. If Curry is unaware of these issues, what does that […]

New poster bender has written some very thoughtful posts, including some comments on Gaspé which I I’d like to recover from deep in a political thread. The growth pulse in Gaspé cedars seemed very improbable to me as a temperature proxy; bender has some detailed knowledge on the topic.

As per a request initiated by Bender, here is a critique of the recent Lindzen and Choi paper. Citation: Lindzen, R. S., and Y.-S. Choi (2009), On the determination of climate feedbacks from ERBE data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L16705, doi:10.1029/ 2009GL039628. http://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/seminars/pdfs/lindzen.choi.grl.2009.pdf Abstract: Climate feedbacks are estimated from fluctuations in the outgoing radiation budget […]

Reader Tom P observed: If Steve really wants to invalidate the Yamal chronology, he would have to find another set of cores that also gave good correlation with the instrument record, but indicated a previous climate comparable or warmer than that seen today. As bender observed, Tom P’s question here is a bit of a […]

In spite of suffering a serious illness (which I understand to be a kidney problem), Keith Briffa has taken the time to comment on the Yamal situation. The comment should be read by interested readers. If Briffa or any of his associates wishes to post a thread here without any editorial control on my part, […]

One excellent feature of the Alaskan varvochronologists is that (unlike, say, Bradley and his coterie) some of them show and archive their work. The Kaufman student MSc theses are good at this. So too is Michael Loso’s work on Iceberg Lake. Thus while one can raise an eyebrow at (and criticize) their statistical peregrinations, at […]