Search Results for: nic lewis

New Nic Lewis Paper

Nic Lewis’s paper on climate sensitivity is available. See his BH post here. Also see discussion at Judy Curry and WUWT.

Nic Lewis on Statistical errors in the Forest 2006 climate sensitivity study

Nic Lewis writes as follows (see related posts here, here) First, my thanks to Steve for providing this platform. Some of you will know of me as a co-author of the O’Donnell, Lewis, McIntyre and Condon paper on an improved temperature reconstruction for Antarctica. Since then I have mainly been investigating studies of equilibrium climate […]

Nic Lewis on Forest et al 2006

Myles Allen recently asked that more attention be paid by critics to work on climate sensitivity, rather than paleoclimate. Nic Lewis, a coauthor of O’Donnell et al 2010, has been parsing climate sensitivity calculations for some time and with considerable frustration. Nic Lewis has a very important article at Judy Curry’s here. One of the […]

Nic Lewis on IPCC Climate Sensitivity

Nic Lewis (a co-author of O’Donnell et al 2010) is a very sharp analyst who’s recently taken an interest in climate sensitivity estimates and has an interesting guest post at Judy Curry’s today. In his studies, he noticed that the IPCC’s representation in AR4 Figure 9.20 of the probability distribution for climate sensitivity arising from […]

Was early onset industrial-era warming anthropogenic, as Abram et al. claim?

A guest post by Nic Lewis Introduction A recent PAGES 2k Consortium paper in Nature,[i] Abram et al., that claims human-induced, greenhouse gas driven warming commenced circa 180 years ago,[ii] has been attracting some attention. The study arrives at its start dates by using a change-point analysis method, SiZer, to assess when the most recent […]

The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity

A guest post by Nic Lewis Judith Curry and I have now updated the LC15 paper with a new paper that has been published in the Journal of Climate There has been considerable scientific investigation of the magnitude of the warming of Earth’s climate by changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. Two standard metrics […]

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity in global climate models, Part 3

The two strongest potentially credible constraints, and conclusions A guest post by Nic Lewis In Part 1 of this article the nature and validity of emergent constraints[1] on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in GCMs were discussed, drawing mainly on the analysis and assessment of 19 such constraints in Caldwell et al. (2018),[2] who concluded that […]

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity in global climate models, Part 2

The four constraints that Caldwell assessed as credible A guest post by Nic Lewis In Part 1 of this article the nature and validity of emergent constraints[i] on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in GCMs were discussed, drawing mainly on the analysis and assessment of 19 such constraints in Caldwell et al (2018; henceforth Caldwell),[ii] who […]

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity in global climate models, Part 1

Their nature and assessment of their validity A guest post by Nic Lewis There have been quite a number of papers published in recent years concerning “emergent constraints” on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in comprehensive global climate models (GCMs), of both the current (CMIP5) and previous (CMIP3) generations. The range of ECS values in GCMs […]

Marvel et al.’s new paper on estimating climate sensitivity from observations

A guest post by Nic Lewis Introduction and summary Recently a new model-based paper on climate sensitivity was published by Kate Marvel, Gavin Schmidt (the head of NASA GISS) and others, titled ‘Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations’.[1] It appears to me that the novel part of its analysis is […]