Search Results for: pseudo proxies

Pseudoproxies in Mann et al 2007

Judith Curry and JEG have expressed an interest in talking about Mann et al 2007, Robustness of proxy-based climate field reconstruction methods, JGR pdf. This is successor article to Mann et al, 2005, Testing the Fidelity of Methods Used in Proxy-Based Reconstructions of Past Climate, pdf. Looking past the annoying and amusing faults, here are some […]

Benchmarking from VZ Pseudoproxies

Von Storch et al 2004 advocated using climate models to generate pseudoproxies to test the properties of proposed multivariate methods. Hardly unreasonable. I might argue that these are long-winded ways of generating proxy series with certain kinds of temporal and spatial covariance structures, but there’s much to be said for testing methods on some standard […]

Screening Proxies: Is It Just a Lot of Noise?

There has been a great deal of discussion on a recent CA thread on the efficacy of screening proxies for use in reconstructions by selecting on the size of the correlation between the proxy and the temperature during the calibration time period. During the discussion I asked Nick Stokes the following questions in a comment: […]

MBH Proxies in Bo Li et al

We have a new article from the Mannian school, this time involving supposedly “independent” NAS panelist, Doug Nychka, and geologist Caspar Ammann, who is very enthusiastic about calculating covariances using Mannian proxies. The lead author is a statistician, Bo Li. The article purports to use MBH99 proxies and says we do not critically evaluate these […]

The Juckes Proxies

I thought that some of you would be interested in a plot of Juckes’ Union proxies against gridcell temperatures. I’ll start off by simply showing a plot during the 1856-1980 calibration period (both scaled over 1856-1980), as below, followed by a plot of the residuals. The proxies are arranged according to longitude from California going […]

Impact of Shared Proxies

Here’s an interesting calculation showing remarkable coherence between multiproxy averages of red noise, when proxies are shared.

Signal to Noise Ratio Estimates of Mann08 Temperature Proxy Data

Guest post by Jeff Id from The Air Vent (used by invitation) Occasionally when working on one thing long enough, you discover something unexpected that allows you to take a step forward in understanding.  At the ICCC conference, I met Steve McIntyre and took time to ask him how come Mann07 “Robustness of proxy-based climate […]

von Storch et al 2004 in IPCC AR4

It’s interesting to see what’s been changed between the Second Draft and AR4 as it went out the door, and compare that to comments. von Storch et al 2004 argued that the low-frequency variance of reconstructions wsa under-estimated, a point with which I agree (although it’s a different point about whether these reconstructions are biased […]

Trip Report – Holland

A late report on my visit to Holland. I don’t think that I’ve talked as much in a month as I did in 36 hours in Holland. I had two main presentations -one at KNMI in the morning; one at the Free University in the afternoon. I also had two long newspaper interviews and a […]

Von Storch: Hockeysticks, the tragedy of the commons and sustainability of climate science

Hockeysticks, the tragedy of the commons and sustainability of climate science. Hans von Storch – Director of Institute of Coastal Research of the GKSS Research Centre in Geesthacht. Professor at the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg, Germany Panelists: Warren Washington, Caspar Amman and Doug Nychka, NCAR, and Roger Pielke Jr. (CIRES) Location: Mesa […]