Search Results for: r2

Emile-Geay and Verification r2 Statistics

Julien Emile-Geay from Judith Curry’s university – who, together with Kim Cobb, is teaching a course on the Hockey Stick – has joined our debate with a forceful criticism of Craig Loehle’s recent paper. While Emile-Geay seems to be a lively young man with some very cordial comments about CA here and his comments are […]

Verification r2 Revealed!!!

For the first time, a member of the Hockey Team (Ammann and Wahl) has admitted that the verification r2 for the early steps of MBH98 are catastrophic. Results confirm our calculations – as we predicted. They have not explained the justification for issuing a press release that all our claims were "unfounded" and UCAR has […]

More on MBH98 Cross-Validation R2

I have previously discussed here and here Mann’s answer to the following question from the House Committee: "7 c. Did you calculate the R2 statistic for the temperature reconstruction, particularly for the 15th Century proxy record calculations and what were the results?" Mann stated: "My colleagues and I did not rely on this statistic in […]

Cross-Validation R2 Source Code Reference

Just for reference: here’s the code excerpt where Mann calculates the cross-validation R2 statistics and then writes it to file. You can see the original code at ftp://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/pub/MANNETAL98/METHODS/multiproxy.f.{Update – http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/research/MANNETAL98/METHODS/multiproxy.f ] Search down using corrnhem or verif1,out. There is no "if" as to whether he calculated the cross-validation R2 statistic.

MBH98 Source Code: Cross-validation R2

Mann has just(July 2005) archived a fortran program at ftp://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/pub/MANNETAL98/METHODS/multiproxy.f. {Update: see here] Here are my first thoughts on this.

Guccifer 2 and “Russian” Metadata

The DHS-FBI intel assessment of the DNC hack concluded with “high confidence” that Guccifer 2 was a Russian operations, but provided (literally) zero evidence in support of their attribution.  Ever since Guccifer 2’s surprise appearance on June 15, 2016 (one day after Crowdstrike’s announcement of the DNC hack by “Russia”), there has been a widespread […]

Guccifer 2 Email Time Zone

One of the major differences between Mr FOIA and Guccifer 2 is the latter’s use of email to correspond to journalists. G2 contacted Gawker and Smoking Gun on June 15, corresponding further with Smoking Gun on June 21 and June 27. He corresponded with Vocativ on July 4-5 and with the Hill on July 11 […]

Time Zone of Guccifer 2 cf.7z

In a recent post, I observed that the majority of the emails in the Wikileaks DNC archive were sent AFTER Crowdstrike installed their anti-Russian software on May 6.  In today’s post, I’ll look at a metadata issue concerning Guccifer 2, who was, with “high confidence”, attributed by the US intel community to be Russian, supposedly […]

The Destruction of Huma Abedin’s Emails on the Clinton Server and their Surprise Recovery

Despite extraordinarily intense coverage of all aspects of Hillary Clinton’s emails, all commentary to date (to my knowledge), even the underlying FBI Report, has paid little to no attention to the destruction of Huma Abedin’s emails, also stored on the Clinton server.  Further, even with the greatly increased interest in Huma’s emails arising from the discoveries […]

Gergis and Law Dome

In today’s post, I’m going to examine Gergis’ dubious screening out of the Law Dome d18O series, a series that has been of long-standing interest at Climate Audit (tag). Gergis et al 2016 stated that they screened proxies according to significance of the correlation to local gridcell temperature. Law Dome d18O not only had a significant […]