Search Results for: santer

Replicating Santer Tables 1 and 3

Has anyone tried to replicate Santer’s Table 1 and 3 results? It’s not as easy as it looks. What’s tricky is that the table looks pretty easy (and most of it is), but, if you assume that it’s done in a conventional way, you’ll get wrongfooted. In fairness, Santer provided an equation for the unconventional […]

Resolving the Santer Problem

In today’s post, I think that I’ve developed an interesting approach to the Santer problem, which represents a substantial improvement to the analyses of either the Santer or Douglas posses. I think that the approach proposed here is virtually identical to Jaynes’ approach to analyzing the difference between two means, as set out in the […]

Santer and the Closet Frequentist

In many interesting comments, beaker, a welcome Bayesian commenter, has endorsed the Santer criticism of Douglass et al purporting to demonstrate inconsistency between models and data for tropical troposphere trends. (Prior post in sequence here) Santer et al proposed revised significance tests which, contrary to the Douglass results, did not yield results with statistical “significance”, […]

Santer et al 2008

As a diversion from ploughing through Mann et al 2008, I took a look at Santer et al 2008 SI, a statistical analysis of tropospheric trends by 16 non-statisticians and, down the list, Doug Nychka, a statistician who, unfortunately, is no longer “independent”. It is the latest volley in a dispute between Santer and his […]

Willis on Santer et al 2006

The new Santer et al. paper, Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions, purports to show that sea surface temperature (SST) changes in the Pacific Cyclogenesis Region (PCR) and the Atlantic Cyclogenesis Region are caused by anthopogenic global warming (AGW). They claim to do this by showing that models […]

Schmidt’s Histogram Diagram Doesn’t Refute Christy

In my most recent post,  I discussed yet another incident in the long running dispute about the inconsistency between models and observations in the tropical troposphere – Gavin Schmidt’s twitter mugging of John Christy and Judy Curry.   Included in Schmidt’s exchange with Curry was a diagram with a histogram of model runs. In today’s […]

Gavin Schmidt and Reference Period “Trickery”

In the past few weeks, I’ve been re-examining the long-standing dispute over the discrepancy between models and observations in the tropical troposphere.  My interest was prompted in part by Gavin Schmidt’s recent attack on a graphic used by John Christy in numerous presentations (see recent discussion here by Judy Curry).   Schmidt made the sort of offensive allegations that […]

New Paper by McKitrick and Vogelsang comparing models and observations in the tropical troposphere

This is a guest post by Ross McKitrick. Tim Vogelsang and I have a new paper comparing climate models and observations over a 55-year span (1958-2012) in the tropical troposphere. Among other things we show that climate models are inconsistent with the HadAT, RICH and RAOBCORE weather balloon series. In a nutshell, the models not only […]

Two Minutes to Midnight

There is much in the news about how IPCC will handle the growing discrepancy between models and observations – long an issue at skeptic blogs. According to BBC News, a Dutch participant says that “governments are demanding a clear explanation” of the discrepancy. On the other hand, Der Spiegel reports: German ministries insist that it […]

Mike’s AGU Trick

There has been considerable recent discussion of the fact that observations have been running cooler than models – see, for example, Lucia’s discussion of IPCC AR5 SOD Figure 9.8 (see here). However, Michael Mann at AGU took an entirely different line. Mann asserted that observations were running as hot or hotter than models. Mann’s assertion […]