Does anyone think that Kerry Emanuel and Judith Curry each have an obligation to issue a report in Nature and/or Science on the 2006 hurricane season? Corporations can’t just issue financial statements when they have good years; they have to issue reports in bad years. And let there be no doubt – 2006 was a “bad” year for hurricane alarmists. I’ve collated all the storm track data to date. Storm and hurricane days are each off 30%; cat 3+ days by 50% and cat 4+ days by 54%. Hurricane days were at their lowest levels since 1989 and storm days at their lowest levels since Dvorak measurements were introduced in the Pacific in 1987. To my knowledge, this is the first quantitative report of these 2006 hurricane results. Emanuel had something in print using 2005 hurricane data in December 2005 (Reply to Landsea). What’s the over/under on when Emanuel and/or Webster/Curry will report on 2006 results in peer reviewed literature?
The results for storm, hurricane cat 3 and cat 4+ days are indicated in the graphic below:
Figure 1. Total storm, hurricane, cat 3 and cat 4+ days for 5 basins (Atlantic, W Pacific, E PAcific, N Indian Ocean, S Indian Oean + S Pacific). (Storm includes all greater categories etc.)
Webster and Curry argued that the proportion of intense hurricanes was increasing. The proportion also turned down slightly in 2006. (While I haven’t discussed this, Webster et al do not even begin to demonstrate that the results from the last few years demonstrate a change in distribution as opposed to high draws from a stochastic process for a few years).
Figure 2. As figure 1, showing proportion of storm days.
For reference, I’ve calculated “hurricane days” etc. by dividing the number of 6-hour measurements at hurricane speed by 4. This does not exactly reconcile to the figure in Webster, Curry et al, although the shapes match pretty closely – Webster et al do not provide a complete operational definition. Given the “topological” match, it is highly doubtful that the above results will not also hold for the corresponding indicator in the Webster, Curry operational definition, whatever tghat may be.
Figure 3. From Webster and Curry.
Figure 4. Emulation of hurricane-day calculation in right panel of Figure 3.