By far, the most important issue in Emanuel 2005 is Emanuel’s adjustments to West Pacific hurricane wind speeds. I’ve reached this conclusion after expenditure of a considerable amount of time and effort, including looking at every Annual Report of the Joint Typhoon Warning Council from 1959-2003. After doing this, I stumbled on a Comment by […]
One of the critical issues in Emanuel 2005 (and presumably for other like studies) is how measurement inhomogeneity is dealt with. Emanuel relies on Landsea 1993 for a procedure to downward adjust pre-1970 wind speeds. However, prior to Emanuel’s article, Landsea – who seems vastly more authoritative than Emanuel on hurricane data – had pointed […]
Mann and Emanuel 2006 presents an interesting alliance of Emanuel with Michael "I am not a statistician" Mann to carry out calculations purportedly "using a formal statistical analysis to separate the estimated influences of anthropogenic climate change from possible natural cyclical influences". It will come as little surprise to readers of this blog that there […]
Emanuel 2005 stated: The annual average storm peak wind speed summed over the North Atlantic and eastern and western North Pacific has also increased during this period, by about 50%. Once again, I can’t reproduce this result. Here are my calculations.
Emanuel 2005 stated: The accumulated annual duration of storms in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific has indeed increased by roughly 60% since 1949, though this may partially reflect changes in reporting practices, as discussed in Methods. Speaking of “rudimentary statistics”, this seems like a rudimentary statistical statement. But there are wheels within wheels.
A couple of days ago, I posted up my attempt to replicate Emanuel 2005 Figure 1 (Atlantic PDI) and today post up a similar exercise on W Pacific PDI. While most hurricane discussion is focussed on the Atlantic, the PDI in the W Pacific is about 5 times larger. Emanuel said: I maintain that current […]
Willis writes: I wanted to see if there was acceleration in the TOPEX sea level record. I have looked all over the web to find either the data used to create the following image of the sea level rise as measured by the TOPEX satellite, available here, or some estimate of any acceleration that might […]
Hot off the press this week is a study on foraminera over the last millennium in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool – something that you’d think would be relevant to Hansen’s attempts to splice modern instrumental records to core tops ending in the Holocene Optimum. Newton et al 2006 have the following abstract:
Interesting presentation by Bill Gray posted up here . I’ve just scanned through it but I’m sure that it will cause much controversy. Please also consider the critique of Bill Gray at realclimate here . The only areas that I have personally examined data and methods are for proxy data, where obviously I feel that […]
I’m in the process of trying to replicate some of the hurricane papers. Obviously this is new territory for me – so forgive me if I’m going over old ground. Emanuel Figure 1 states in its caption that "total Atlantic hurricane power dissipation has more than doubled in the past 30 yr" and David Stockwell’s […]
Climate Audit 