On Aug 26, 2006, Judith Curry made the following comment about cyclone data, mentioning that re-processing had been done back to 1983: The tropical cyclone data really is rather a mess, the NATL is definitely the most reliable, so I am focusing on that data set (with all its warts) until the global satellite data […]
I’m looking at some of the details of the Webster, Curry et al 2005 claim that the proportion of intense hurricanes has increased. While I was doing so, I noticed an interesting issue in the Northern Indian Ocean tropical storm counts. Here is an excerpt from Webster et al 2005 Figure showing the count of […]
By far, the most important issue in Emanuel 2005 is Emanuel’s adjustments to West Pacific hurricane wind speeds. I’ve reached this conclusion after expenditure of a considerable amount of time and effort, including looking at every Annual Report of the Joint Typhoon Warning Council from 1959-2003. After doing this, I stumbled on a Comment by […]
One of the critical issues in Emanuel 2005 (and presumably for other like studies) is how measurement inhomogeneity is dealt with. Emanuel relies on Landsea 1993 for a procedure to downward adjust pre-1970 wind speeds. However, prior to Emanuel’s article, Landsea – who seems vastly more authoritative than Emanuel on hurricane data – had pointed […]
Mann and Emanuel 2006 presents an interesting alliance of Emanuel with Michael "I am not a statistician" Mann to carry out calculations purportedly "using a formal statistical analysis to separate the estimated influences of anthropogenic climate change from possible natural cyclical influences". It will come as little surprise to readers of this blog that there […]
Emanuel 2005 stated: The annual average storm peak wind speed summed over the North Atlantic and eastern and western North Pacific has also increased during this period, by about 50%. Once again, I can’t reproduce this result. Here are my calculations.
Emanuel 2005 stated: The accumulated annual duration of storms in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific has indeed increased by roughly 60% since 1949, though this may partially reflect changes in reporting practices, as discussed in Methods. Speaking of “rudimentary statistics”, this seems like a rudimentary statistical statement. But there are wheels within wheels.
A couple of days ago, I posted up my attempt to replicate Emanuel 2005 Figure 1 (Atlantic PDI) and today post up a similar exercise on W Pacific PDI. While most hurricane discussion is focussed on the Atlantic, the PDI in the W Pacific is about 5 times larger. Emanuel said: I maintain that current […]
Interesting presentation by Bill Gray posted up here . I’ve just scanned through it but I’m sure that it will cause much controversy. Please also consider the critique of Bill Gray at realclimate here . The only areas that I have personally examined data and methods are for proxy data, where obviously I feel that […]
I’m in the process of trying to replicate some of the hurricane papers. Obviously this is new territory for me – so forgive me if I’m going over old ground. Emanuel Figure 1 states in its caption that "total Atlantic hurricane power dissipation has more than doubled in the past 30 yr" and David Stockwell’s […]
Climate Audit 