The Corrigendum SI stated that: MBH98 made use of all nearly continuous monthly gridpoint surface temperature records (no single gap greater than 24 months, and no more than 10 years of total missing data. I checked these criteria against the temperature dataset archived at the Corrigendum SI and found that 242 out of 1082 gridcells […]
I have a considerable inventory of material on replication issues pertaining to MBH98, which does not really fit into academic journal formats. I’ll probably do about 25 of these notes, which may interest a few people and will illustrate the obstacles to replicating MBH98 without a close examination of source code. I’ll start first with […]
While Steve McIntyre gets his visage on international TV (and, so rumors say, have his front door widened), here on the weblog we can still play our game of "Spot the Hockey Stick", the temperature reconstruction that, according to William Connelley, was made into a totem of global warming by skeptics and not by the multi-billion […]
Another instalment of our favorite game. This time it’s from the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, which was published with big fanfare and a slew of scary headlines and quotations in October 2004. The documents are stowed in the AMAP documents database and contain some of the slickest, glossiest presentations that I can remember. They’ve obviously got […]
In the last two days, I’ve argued that it’s insufficient for Mann et al. to merely “get” a hockey stick shape some other way, but that they have to show that any such salvage reconstruction meets the representations and warranties of MBH98 as to reasonably even spatial sampling, robustness, statistical skill and proxy validity. I’ve […]
Can anyone explain to me the meaning of the following email from Hughes to Mann, dated July 29, 1997, archived at Mann’s FTP site at ftp://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/pub/MBH98/TREE/VAGANOV/ORIG/malcolm_29-JUL-97. As follow-up, the site arge030 was listed in the original SI as being used in MBH98, but was not actually used in MBH98 calculations evidenced at Mann’s FTP site. […]
Another sighting of our favorite climate reconstruction is to be found at the "Strategic Plan for the Climate Change, Science Program, Final Report, July 2003", published by the US Climate Change Science Program. This document quotes the opinion of the IPCC 2001 report as the basis for its declaration Climate research has indicated that, globally, […]
Of all people involved in the promotion of the Hockey Stick, Sir John Houghton, head of the IPCC is probably the chief champion of MBH98 and MBH99 as the "scientific consensus" of how the global climate changed in the last millenium. Here’s Sir John in front of that famous graph Referring to the Hockey Stick, […]
Yesterday in Errors Matter #1, I argued that any new reconstruction now proposed by Mann et al. as a means of salvaging MBH98-type results has to also meet the representations and warranties of MBH98 used to induce widespread acceptance. I showed that the no-PC reconstruction recently proposed by Mann et al. as a way of […]
Mann et al. have responded to our criticism by claiming that the errors which we have identified “don’t matter” because they can “get” MBH-type results under several different methods, one of which is through not using any PCs. Ross and I previewed an initial reply to these arguments here and plan to issue a pdf […]
Climate Audit 