"SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS"

[Climate Audit was started on Jan 31, 2005. Prior to its startup I had some notes at a prior website http://www.climate2003.com, responding here to blog criticisms at Deltoid and similar sites.]

Maybe I’ll start blogging some odds and ends that I’m working on. I’m going to post up some more observations on some of the blog criticisms.

One of the most common arguments against our criticism of MBH98 is that it is supported by other multi-proxy studies. This "support" is usually shown by "spaghetti diagrams", usually showing the results on an almost unintelligible scale. Here’s an oddity from spaghetti diagrams from Briffa et al. (2001) and Jones and Mann (2004). In the Briffa et al. spaghetti diagram, the Crowley-Lowery reconstruction is the "coldest" in the 17th and 18th centuries and does not intersect the MBH99 reconstruction. In the Jones and Mann spaghetti diagram, the Crowley-Lowery reconstruction intersects the MBH99 reconstruction in the late 17th century. Figure 1. Spaghetti Diagram, Briffa et al. (2001)) From this site. The Crowley-Lowery (2000) reconstruction is in a orange-brown and is the lowest strand in the 17th and 18th centuries, lower than MBH98/99 (purple) or Briffa et al (2000) (green). Figure 2. Spaghetti Diagram, Jones and Mann (2004) Here Crowley-Lowery (2000) is in black In this diagram, it intersects MBH99 in the late 17th century and is consistently above Briffa et al. (2001). In the Jones and Mann spaghetti diagram, the reconstructions were "scaled by linear regression against the smoothed instrumental NH series over the common interval 1856-1980, with the exception of Briffa et al (2001), which has been scaled over the shorter 1856-1940 interval owing to a late 20th century decline in temperature response in some of the underlying data". This supposed "decline in temperature response" is an interesting story in itself. The Briffa spaghetti diagram states that all values are re-expressed relative to a 1961-1990 mean (see y-axis label). I’m not expressing any views on this right now, merely noting it.

Sample of Intl Text for WP move

Ok, I see you’re just regurgitating WMO policy. I thought we were discussing what should be done, which is to measure the temperature of the spherical slice of atmosphere. I never realized when I was walking through the forest that I was actually walking through land. I should have been like a Horta and screamed “Pain” about the missing “children”.

My reporting of the scientific methods used successfully for a lifetime is certainly not what you incorrectly describe as “ just regurgitating WMO policy.” I am presenting some valid answers in response to your question: “What are we trying to measure?” It makes no difference whether you believe we are talking about past and current WMO policies and practices or future such policies and practices.

i\hbar\frac{\partial}{\partial t}\left|\Psi(t)\right>=H\left|\Psi(t)\right>

Bürger CPD submission

I hope that you are following the lively discussion about Bürger and Cubasch at Climates of the Past here , where Mann aka Anonymous Referee #2 is carrying on in a quite extraodinary way. I’ll probably try to weigh in over there at some point. The dialogue has exploded fairly quickly and I’ve collated some of the discussion in the post here.

Bürger and Cubasch report a very high RE statistic for the "nonsense" relationship betwen the number of reporting gridcells and NH temperature.