We hear lots about polar amplification. Mears and Wentz recently updated their TMT (mid-troposphere) data for 60-70S, but didn’t update the more controversial TLT3 (lower-troposphere) data, which is current only to August 2006. Given the pending IPCC 4AR, you’d think that Mears and Wentz would be completely up-to-date with their lower troposphere results. Is there a reason? Well, there’s a rather high correlation between the TMT and TLT3 series (0.76 – a huge correlation in climate terms) so I used the TMT series to project the TLT3 series to the end of December 2006. I’m projecting that the December 2006 Mears-Wentz Antarctic TLT3 when reported will be one of the lowest on record.
I’ve indicated my TLT3 “forecast” in red. Also note that regardless of this last little downtick, there is no observable trend in the 60-70S Mears-Wentz lower troposphere results. It will be interesting to see IPCC 4AR handles the non-“amplification” at the South Pole.
Top- TLT3 (lower-troposphere); TMT – mid-troposphere. Last 4 months in top chart (dashed red) estimated from TMT by regression model.