In many interesting comments, beaker, a welcome Bayesian commenter, has endorsed the Santer criticism of Douglass et al purporting to demonstrate inconsistency between models and data for tropical troposphere trends. (Prior post in sequence here) Santer et al proposed revised significance tests which, contrary to the Douglass results, did not yield results with statistical “significance”, […]
Today, I’m going to consider the handling in Mann et al 2008 of 17 proxy series developed by Peter Brown and Connie Woodhouse. Peter Brown is an anti-CA dendro who made a few posts here last year mainly on this thread. He introduced himself by saying “I have little patience for your blog. .. Typically […]
As a diversion from ploughing through Mann et al 2008, I took a look at Santer et al 2008 SI, a statistical analysis of tropospheric trends by 16 non-statisticians and, down the list, Doug Nychka, a statistician who, unfortunately, is no longer “independent”. It is the latest volley in a dispute between Santer and his […]
In March last year, I was intrigued by the following statement in the then recent IPCC Summary for Policymakers which stated: “Studies since the TAR draw increased confidence from additional data showing coherent behaviour across multiple indicators in different parts of the world” What exactly was the “additional data” since the TAR? At the time, […]
Over the past few years, I’ve tried to keep an eye on and review new millennium proxies, posting a number of reviews on high-resolution ocean sediments and new tree ring proxies. I’ve reported on new tree ring data archived by Jacoby, Rob Wlson, David Meko, Connie Woodhouse and others, leading to some interesting interventions here […]
When the Team is on the move, they can sometimes move with surprising speed, as you’ll see in today’s story. Over the last month, we’ve seen multiple changes to the Mann SI, at first, without any notice. More recently, they’ve started to note the existence of changes, though, the changes themselves are typically not reported […]
Take a look at today’s puzzle. On the left, I’ve plotted the three EIV reconstructions for the NH hemisphere using the infilled CRU series as a “target”. The data is straight from Mann’s website. One shows the “full” global network, one shows the “full” NH network (both of which I take to really be series […]
Today I’m doing a first reconnaissance of Butterworth filters, used extensively in Mann et al 2008. The comments here are notes and thoughts and I hope that some issues can be clarified by readers. As of 12.30 pm today, I think that that the main problem that I’ve had pertains to a difference between R […]
The “full” network isn’t. Mann et al 2008 describe a “full” network consisting of 1209 proxies: We made use of a multiple proxy (‘‘multiproxy’) database consisting of a diverse (1,209) set of annually (1,158) and decadally (51) resolved proxy series … Reconstructions were performed based on both the ‘‘full’ proxy data network and on a […]
Mann et al (PNAS 2008) states: All data used in this study and Matlab source codes for implementing the algorithms described, as well as additional supporting information are available at http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/supplements/MultiproxyMeans07 . They did make a much better effort than others in the field, but unfortunately the reality falls short of the PNAS representation. They […]
Climate Audit 