As noted by Pat Frank, Demetris Koutsoyiannis’ new paper has been published, evaluating 18 years of climate model predictions of temperature and precipitation at 8 locales distributed worldwide. Demetris notified me of this today as well.
The paper is open access and can be downloaded here: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1623/hysj.53.4.671
Here’s the citation: D. KOUTSOYIANNIS, A. EFSTRATIADIS, N. MAMASSIS & A. CHRISTOFIDES “On the credibility of climate predictions” Hydrological Sciences–Journal–des Sciences Hydrologiques, 53 (2008).
Abstract “Geographically distributed predictions of future climate, obtained through climate models, are widely used in hydrology and many other disciplines, typically without assessing their reliability. Here we compare the output of various models to temperature and precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100 years) records from around the globe. The results show that models perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported.”
Pat Frank observes: “In essence, they found that climate models have no predictive value.”