Monthly Archives: June 2015

Exponent’s Transients: Bodge or Botch?

Jun 29, 2015 – 12:04 PM

In my first writeup, I observed that Exponent’s Logo transients appeared to be bodged too high, even with their unwarranted and adverse use of 67 deg F initialization (Exponent’s “temperature trick”). In today’s post, I’ve taken a closer look at the seemingly questionable calculation of the transients at 67 deg F, showing that the Patriot […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | Comments (44)

NFL Officials Over-Inflated Patriot Balls

Jun 28, 2015 – 10:33 AM

One of the ironies of the NFL’s conduct in this affair is that it can be established that NFL officials (under the supervision of NFL Executive Vice President Troy Vincent) over-inflated Patriot balls at half-time, the only proven tampering with Patriot balls. Brady and the Patriots were unaffected by the overinflation by NFL officials, as […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | Comments (50)

More on Deflategate

Jun 26, 2015 – 1:06 PM

By converting football pressures to ball temperatures under the Ideal Gas Law, it is possible to conveniently show Colt and Patriot information – transients, simulations and observations – on a common scale. I’ve done this in the diagram shown below, and, in my opinion, it neatly summarizes the actual information. Commentary follows the figure. Figure 1.  Transients as […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Uncategorized | Comments (27)

Deflategate and Errors in the Wells Report

Jun 23, 2015 – 3:44 PM

Readers in the U.S. are doubtless aware of the “Deflategate scandal”, in which the NFL alleged that Tom Brady, the greatest quarterback of his generation, had conspired with an equipment manager and locker room attendant, to deflate a microscopic amount of pressure from footballs in the AFC championship game. The NFL seemed to be completely […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | Comments (147)

Implications of recent multimodel attribution studies for climate sensitivity

Jun 2, 2015 – 7:22 AM

Last year, a paper of mine (Lewis 2014) showing that the approach used in Frame et al (2005), which argued for using a uniform prior for estimating equilibrium (strictly, effective) climate sensitivity (ECS), in fact led to a unique, objective Bayesian estimate for ECS upon undertaking a simple transformation (change) of variables. The estimate was […]

By niclewis | Posted in Uncategorized | Comments (144)