Category Archives: Uncategorized

Joelle Gergis, Data Torturer

In 2012, the then much ballyhoo-ed Australian temperature reconstruction of Gergis et al 2012 mysteriously disappeared from Journal of Climate after being criticized at Climate Audit. Now, more than four years later, a successor article has finally been published. Gergis says that the only problem with the original article was a “typo” in a single […]

Gergis

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Are energy budget TCR estimates biased low, as Richardson et al (2016) claim?

A guest post by Nic Lewis   Introduction and Summary In a recently published paper (REA16),[1] Mark Richardson et al. claim that recent observation-based energy budget estimates of the Earth’s transient climate response (TCR) are biased substantially low, with the true value some 24% higher. This claim is based purely on simulations by CMIP5 climate […]

Deflategate: Controversy is due to Scientist Error

I’ve submitted an article entitled “New Light on Deflategate: Critical Technical Errors” pdf to Journal of Sports Analytics. It identifies and analyzes a previously unnoticed scientific error in the technical analysis included in the Wells Report on Deflategate. The article shows precisely how the “unexplained” deflation occurred prior to Anderson’s measurement and disproves the possibility of post-measurement […]

Schmidt’s Histogram Diagram Doesn’t Refute Christy

In my most recent post,  I discussed yet another incident in the long running dispute about the inconsistency between models and observations in the tropical troposphere – Gavin Schmidt’s twitter mugging of John Christy and Judy Curry.   Included in Schmidt’s exchange with Curry was a diagram with a histogram of model runs. In today’s […]

Gavin Schmidt and Reference Period “Trickery”

In the past few weeks, I’ve been re-examining the long-standing dispute over the discrepancy between models and observations in the tropical troposphere.  My interest was prompted in part by Gavin Schmidt’s recent attack on a graphic used by John Christy in numerous presentations (see recent discussion here by Judy Curry).   Schmidt made the sort of offensive allegations that […]

Objective Bayesian parameter estimation: Incorporating prior information

A guest article by Nic Lewis Introduction In a recent article I discussed Bayesian parameter inference in the context of radiocarbon dating. I compared Subjective Bayesian methodology based on a known probability distribution, from which one or more values were drawn at random, with an Objective Bayesian approach using a noninformative prior that produced results […]

Marvel et al.: GISS did omit land use forcing

A guest article by Nic Lewis I reported in a previous post, here, a number of serious problems that I had identified in Marvel et al. (2015): Implications for climate sensitivity from the response to individual forcings. This Nature Climate Change paper concluded, based purely on simulations by the GISS-E2-R climate model, that estimates of […]

Bayesian parameter estimation: Radiocarbon dating re-examined

A guest article by Nic Lewis Introduction In April 2014 I published a guest article about statistical methods applicable to radiocarbon dating, which criticised existing Bayesian approaches to the problem. A standard – subjective Bayesian – method of inference about the true calendar age of a single artefact from a radiocarbon date determination (measurement) involved […]

Gerry Browning: In Memory of Professor Heinz Kreiss

Gerry Browning writes: The Correct System of Equations for Climate and Weather Models The system of equations numerically approximated by both weather and climate models is called the hydrostatic system. Using a scale analysis for mid-latitude large scale motions in the atmosphere (motions with a horizontal length scale of 1000 km and time scale of […]

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