Category Archives: Uncategorized

Reply to Patrick Brown’s response to my article commenting on his Nature paper

Introduction I thank Patrick Brown for his detailed response (also here) to statistical issues that I raised in my critique “Brown and Caldeira: A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought” of his and Ken Caldeira’s recent paper (BC17).[1] The provision of more detailed information than was given in BC17, and […]

Polar Bears, Inadequate data and Statistical Lipstick

A recent paper Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy by JEFFREY A. HARVEY and 13 others has been creating somewhat of a stir in the blogosphere. The paper’s abstract purports to achieve the following: Increasing surface temperatures, Arctic sea-ice loss, and other evidence of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) are acknowledged by every […]

Brown and Caldeira: A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought

A guest post by Nic Lewis Introduction Last week a paper predicting greater than expected global warming, by scientists Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira, was published by Nature.[1]  The paper (henceforth referred to as BC17) says in its abstract: “Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future […]

US East Coast Sea Level Rise: An Adjustocene Hockey Stick

In 2011, Andy Revkin wrote an article (archive) entitled “Straight Talk on Rising Seas in a Warming World” (among other articles on the topic), in which he optimistically sought guidance on the topic from a then recent study of U.S. East Coast sea level coauthored by Mann (Kemp et al, 2011).  Joshua Willis told Revkin “that, […]

New Antarctic Temperature Reconstruction

Stenni et al (2017), Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years, was published pdf this week by Climate of the Past.  It includes (multiple variations) of a new Antarctic temperature reconstruction, in which 112 d18O and dD isotope series are combined into regional and continental reconstructions. Its abstract warns that […]

Reconciling Model-Observation Reconciliations

Two very different representations of consistency between models and observations are popularly circulated. On the one hand, John Christy and Roy Spencer have frequently shown a graphic which purports to show a marked discrepancy between models and observations in tropical mid-troposphere, while, on the other hand, Zeke Hausfather, among others, have shown graphics which purport […]

Part 2- The TV5 Monde Hack and APT28

In his attribution of the DNC hack, Dmitri Alperovitch, of Crowdstrike and the Atlantic Council, linked APT28 (Fancy Bear) to previous hacks at TV5 Monde in France and of the Bundestag in Germany: FANCY BEAR (also known as Sofacy or APT 28) is a separate Russian-based threat actor, which has been active since mid 2000s […]

From Nigerian Scams to DNC Hack Attribution – Part 1

In Crowdstrike’s original announcement that “Russia” had hacked the DNC, Dmitri Alperovitch said, on the one hand, that the “tradecraft” of the hackers was “superb” and their “operational security second none” and, on the other hand, that Crowdstrike had “immediately identified” the “sophisticated adversaries”.  In contrast, after three years of investigation of Climategate, UK counter-intelligence had […]

Guccifer 2: From January to May, 2016

Within the small community conducting technical analysis of the DNC hack, there has been ongoing controversy over whether Guccifer 2 (G2) was a false flag for the Russians, whether G2 was located in the US rather than Russia, whether the G2 files were copied locally rather than hacked, whether G2 was a false flag for […]

Guccifer 2 and “Russian” Metadata

The DHS-FBI intel assessment of the DNC hack concluded with “high confidence” that Guccifer 2 was a Russian operations, but provided (literally) zero evidence in support of their attribution.  Ever since Guccifer 2’s surprise appearance on June 15, 2016 (one day after Crowdstrike’s announcement of the DNC hack by “Russia”), there has been a widespread […]