Tag Archives: Confidence interval

MBH98 Confidence Intervals

Nov 10, 2023 – 10:55 AM

Continued from here. The Dirty Laundry residual datasets for AD1000, AD1400 and AD1600 were each calculated using Mann’s “sparse” instrumental dataset, but the resultant sigmas and RE(calibration) statistics don’t match reported values.   In contrast, the Dirty Laundry residual dataset for the AD1820 step, which was calculated by Tim Osborn of CRU because Mann “couldn’t find” […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Uncategorized | Also tagged , , | Comments (6)

Mann’s “Dirty Laundry”

Nov 7, 2023 – 2:26 PM

As the date approached for the Mann-Steyn/Simberg libel trial, I’ve been reviewing my files on MBH98 and MBH99. It’s about 15 years since I last looked at these issues.  While revisiting these issues, I re-examined some data associated with the notorious “dirty laundry” Climategate email (link)  – excerpt shown at right – that turns out […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Uncategorized | Also tagged , , , | Comments (21)

A New Caramilk Secret

Nov 10, 2008 – 10:38 AM

Jean S, UC and I spent a considerable amount of time a couple of years ago, trying to figure out how MBH99 confidence intervals were calculated – see here. I asked the NAS panel to investigate the matter, but they failed to do so. After their report, I asked NAS president Cicerone to merely write […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Mann et al 2008 | Comments (13)

The Santer "S.D."

Oct 24, 2008 – 12:53 PM

Lucia has written an interesting post – see here, continuing the effort to figure out the Santer brainteaser. I can shed a little more light (I think) on what Santer’s “S.D” is in operational terms. I was able to replicate Santer’s Table III values using the line item from Table 1 entitled “Inter-model_S.D._T2LT” which is […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Santer, Satellite and gridcell, Statistics | Also tagged , , , | Comments (24)

Resolving the Santer Problem

Oct 21, 2008 – 9:37 AM

In today’s post, I think that I’ve developed an interesting approach to the Santer problem, which represents a substantial improvement to the analyses of either the Santer or Douglas posses. I think that the approach proposed here is virtually identical to Jaynes’ approach to analyzing the difference between two means, as set out in the […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Santer | Also tagged , , , , , , | Comments (59)