Author Archives: niclewis

Radiocarbon calibration and Bayesian inference

Apr 17, 2014 – 10:04 AM

A guest post by Nic Lewis   On 1 April 2014 the Bishop Hill blog carried a guest post ‘Dating error’ by Doug Keenan, in which he set out his allegations of research misconduct by Oxford University professor Christopher Bronk Ramsey. Professor Bronk Ramsey is an expert on calibration of radiocarbon dating and author of […]

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments (127)

Does “Inhomogeneous forcing and transient climate sensitivity” by Drew Shindell make sense?

Mar 10, 2014 – 1:56 PM

A guest post by Nic Lewis  This new Nature Climate Change paper[i] by Drew Shindell claims that the lowest end of transient climate response (TCR) – below 1.3°C – in CMIP5 models is very unlikely, and that this suggests the lowest end of model equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates – modestly above 2°C – is also […]

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments (60)

Does the observational evidence in AR5 support its/the CMIP5 models’ TCR ranges?

Dec 9, 2013 – 12:11 PM

A guest post by Nic Lewis Steve McIntyre pointed out some time ago, here, that almost all the global climate models around which much of the IPCC’s AR5 WGI report was centred had been warming faster than the real climate system over the last 35-odd years, in terms of the key metric of global mean […]

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Comments (85)

Non-centring in the Forest 2006 study

Apr 22, 2013 – 10:48 AM

This is a cautionary tale, about a mystery that had an unexpected explanation. It’s not intended as a criticism of the scientists involved, and the problem involved, although potentially serious, actually had little impact on the results of the study concerned. However, I am hopeful that mathematically and computing orientated readers will find it of […]

Posted in Modeling, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Comments (34)