Author Archives: Stephen McIntyre

McKitrick et al (2010) accepted by Atmos Sci Lett

CA readers are aware that Ross and I twice submitted a comment on Santer et al 2008 to International Journal of Climatology (both available on arxiv.org), showing that key Santer results (which were based on data only up to 1999) were overturned with the use of up-to-date data. These were both rejected (but have been […]

M08 with realdata

Yesterday we noted that “validation” in M08 means that the average of the “late-miss” and “early-miss” RE statistic is above a benchmark of about 0.35. I take no position at present whether this unusual methodology means anything, though I’m a bit dubious. I also observed that the with-dendro reconstructions added surprisingly few series in the […]

Mann and his bristlecones

Gavin Schmidt and others have claimed that the M08 usage of the Tiljander sediments didn’t ‘matter’, because they could “get’ a series that looked somewhat similar without the sediments. They’ve usually talked around the impact of the Tiljander series on the no-dendro reconstruction. But there are two pieces of information on this. A figure added […]

Mosher on Gavin’s “Frustration”

Mosher writes in:

The No-Dendro Illusion

In September 2008, Mann et al reported a “significant development” in paleoclimate reconstructions – a “skillfull” reconstruction without tree ring data for over 1300 years. A skillful EIV reconstruction without tree-ring data is possible even further back, over at least the past 1,300 years, for NH combined land plus ocean temperature (see SI Text). This […]

Mann versus the Provincial Parrots

Roman M and TomRude have observed an interesting letter writing campaign in which Michael Mann contests adverse opinion in provincial newspapers, accusing the letter writers of being “parrots”. Today (July 31, 2010), Mann sent the following letter to the Saint John (New Brunswick) Telegraph Journal objecting to a letter published July 30. Similar letters were […]

Make a stick, make a stick

NASA blogger Gavin Schmidt as part of his ongoing attempt to rehabilitate Mannian paleoclimate reconstructions, characterized here as dendro-phrenology, has drawn attention to a graphic posted up at Mann’s website in November 2009. In this graphic, Mann responded to criticisms that his “no-dendro” stick had been contaminated by bridge-building sediments despite warnings from the author […]

Kola versus Yamal

A news release on a new tree ring study here (h/t Anthony Watts) reported a reconstruction maxing out in the mid-20th century, with the characteristic late 20th century divergence problem. Their results contrast with CRU’s notorious Yamal chronology: Following the summer temperature reconstruction on the Kola Peninsula, the researchers compared their results with similar tree-ring […]

EPA Denies Reconsideration Petitions

The EPA, as expected, has denied the various petitions for reconsideration of their Endangerment Finding. They refer to the various “inquiries” on some points. Interesting reading here http://epa.gov/climatechange/endangerment/petitions.html

Tamino’s Trick: Mann Bites Dog

Self-described “Hansen bulldog” Tamino, writing at NASA’s realclimate blog hosted by Hansen’s other bulldog (Gavin), wrote: As another example, Montford makes the claim that if you eliminate just two of the proxies used for the MBH98 reconstruction since 1400, the Stahle and NOAMER PC1 series, “you got a completely different result — the Medieval Warm […]