It’s Sunday and I was just watching the sports reports while surfing financial crises. A trivia question only for people who do not know the answer and PROMISE to simply guess. The answer is easy if you know it and equally easy to find if you research it, so please don’t spoil the guesses. What […]
Bob Carter sent me a link to the following interesting article and profile on Nassim Taleb. Taleb is a statistician with practical risk experience. We’ve talked endlessly at Climate Audit about weird and inappropriate statistical methods, with frequent mentions of Mandelbrot, fractals and odd distributions. So does Taleb. In a financial context, but Mandelbrot sought […]
The U.S. financial crisis should be on everyone’s mind. It’s a serious situation. A private investor simply can’t hold money market paper right now. So added to the mortgage mess is a liquidity crisis that’s never happened since the run on banks in the Depression. So you can’t do nothing. The liquidity situation has to […]
On September 15, 2008, Anthony DePalma of the New York Times wrote an article about the Mohonk Lakes USHCN weather station titled Weather History Offers Insight Into Global Warming. This article claimed, in part, that the average annual temperature has risen 2.7 degrees in 112 years at this station. What struck me about the article […]
On July 2, I started this popular series of threads as follows: For anyone who’s betting that 2008 meltback will exceed 2007 meltback, I think that you’ll be able to pretty much know where you stand by the end of this week and your chances are not looking good right now based on this week’s […]
A data set that was almost as controversial in MBH98 as the Graybill bristlecones was the Gaspé cedar chronology used by Jacoby and d’Arrigo. An interesting new cedar chronology from Quebec has just appeared at NCDC, shown below. The third chronology shown below is an unreported update to the Gaspé series. I reported the unreported […]
Discussed here with embedded youtube clips. Here is a clip on the Stick. Try not to puke.
My interest in climate change derived in part from experience in the stock market where “consensus” is not infrequently established in favor of opinions that are completely incorrect. And, in many cases, the people promoting the views are competent and serious people. How are such things possible? I read about the Bre-X and Enron failures, […]
On Sep 2, I was getting ready to report on my trip to Italy and my presentation to the World Federation of Scientists seminar in Erice, Sicily, when I was rudely interrupted by the publication of Mann et al 2008. It will take time to fully parse the situation, but the main framework is pretty […]
Phil B writes: My day job does include parameter and state estimation using Least Squares and Kalman filtering. I have replicated several of the non-ice borehole temperature reconstructions and I’ll “share” my observations. The inversion problem boils down to finding the solution to the inconsistent set of linear equations Ax~b, where A is a skinny […]
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