Category Archives: Hurricane

Hurricanes 2008

Discussion of 2008 Hurricane seasonal forecasts, old and new research papers, and interpretation of trends over the entire globe.

David Smith on Tiny Tims

It’s Christmas and a good time to visit Tiny Tim. The visit compares Atlantic storms in two periods and uses Tiny Tims to help in the comparison. One is a modern period (the last twenty years, 1988-2007). This is a period of good (and ever-improving) detection tools, like advanced satellites, improved recon devices, denser buoy […]

2007 Blown off track: Northern Hemisphere Historic Cyclone Inactivity

Ryan Maue writes in as follows (see also 2007 Tropical Cyclone Activity). As reported at Climate Audit at the end of October, the North Atlantic was not the only ocean seeing quiet tropical cyclone activity. When using the ACE cyclone energy scale, the Northern Hemisphere as a whole is historically inactive. How inactive? One has […]

Mann and Sabbatelli 2007

Mann connoisseurs eagerly await any offerings from the Maestro and, just as the Christmas season typically brings a new potboiler from John Grisham, so Christmas 2007 has brought us a new offering from the Maestro, this time on hurricanes. Readers will not disappointed.

Donnelly and Woodruff 2007

Richard T and I had an interesting discussion here about the bioturbation and coarse fractions in the Arabian Sea G Bulloides proxy that is very influential in Moberg and not used in Loehle (as it was not calibrated to temperature.) I had observed that the increase in G Bulloides percentage in the very top part […]

Ryan Maue: Bring out the Broom

With October nearly done circling the drain, I figure it is about time to bring out the broom : Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone activity is at historically low levels . In fact, September 2007 suffered the lowest ACE since 1977 ! Even scarier, so far 2006 and 2007 have the lowest October ACE since 1976 […]

YTD Hurricane Activity

Some of you have been noticing a tendency for almost any gust of wind in the Atlantic to now become a named storm. Given this tendency, more relevant metrics are obviously the number of hurricane-days (and the closely related ACE index) and the number of storm-days. I’ve scraped the data and done the YTD calculations, […]

Hurricanes 2007

New Thread.

Varimax Rotation and the AMM

While I was reading about rotated varimax PCA in connection with Rob Wilson’s article, I came across R.W. Houghton and Y.M. Tourre, 1992, Characteristics of Low-Frequency Sea Surface Temperature Fluctuations in the Tropical Atlantic, Journal of Climate Volume 5, Issue 7 (July 1992) pp. 765—772 url. They observed that a PC analysis applied to Atlantic […]

Bill Gray and the Atlantic Meridional Mode

Bill Gray was credited by Chris Landsea in his WMO and WTC presentations as the person who discovered the link between El Nino and Atlantic hurricanes. He recently suggesting a connection between Atlantic hurricanes and fluctuations in the world ocean conveyor. Judith Curry told the WSJ that Gray has “brain fossilization” and “nobody except a […]