I meant to write about this particular smoking gun some time ago, but I didn’t want to take away attention from Steve’s travails with the NAS Panel and with Geophysical Research Letters. Willis Eschenbach did the actual replication so really it’s his story. If you cast your minds back to last year, a modelling study[1] […]
I’ve been browsing through some articles on climate modeling and GCMs since even the Hockey Team no longer seems to try to base climate policy on multiproxy studies. I’m particularly interested in the approach of maximum entropy theorists, since they offer a very non-IPCC perspective on GCMs. Here are a few quotes from Holloway [2004], […]
I posted up on Kaufmann and Stern [2005] on GCMs a few days ago. Kaufmann subsequently posted up at realclimate here about this, with a detailed reply from Gavin. The exchange is interesting on a number of levels – there is an interesting statistical point raised. In addition, you will notice how quick Gavin is […]
Kaufmann and Stern contained a reference to the provocatively titled Govindan et al. [2002], Global Climate Models Violate Scaling of the Observed Atmospheric Variability, Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, available here . I’ll comment at some time on the scaling issues, but it contained the following concise description of GCMs which I liked: The models [coupled […]
I have much unfinished business with multiproxy studies, but am getting dragged into discussing GCMs, where I wish to make clear that I am not familiar with the literature and am merely commenting on individual articles as I read them in the context of current discussion. If I miss some nuance, I apologize and will […]
I mentioned in connection with GCMs and Ice Ages, that the CO2 cycle was presently regarded by the leading paleoclimatologists as mysterious. This was contested by Lars Kamel, who observed that cold water dissolved more CO2 and did not see why there was a problem. Here I’m merely reporting what I’ve read and do not […]
I’ve tried to stay away from discussing GCMs where my knowledge is limited, but everyone seems to want to discuss them, so, against my better judgement, I’m posting up some thoughts. asked some people at AGU about whether GCMs could model getting into and getting out of ice ages. In some treatments, the presence or […]
I notice that there has been interest recently in the question of the difference between (shortwave) solar radiation and (longwave) infrared radiation as it affects ocean heating. Water is essentially opaque to infrared radiation, while shortwave radiation (especially in the blue wavelengths) can penetrate to substantial depths. realclimate takes the position that this doesn’t matter. […]
The theory of anthropogenic CO2 forcing is that outbound IR radiation is plugged up a little more in the atmosphere, causing a steeper lapse rate and warmer surface. The issue of inbound NIR water vapor absorption is that, if inbound NIR solar radiation is plugged up a little more in the atmosphere, then you would […]
Wild et al. [2001], a blue-chip study, shows that the downward longwave radiation in cold, dry climates is dramatically under-estimated in the GCMs used in IPCC TAR, as shown in the following excerpt from their Figure 4 (from one of the best GCMs). The bias is systemic. FIG. 4. Annual cycles of model-calculated and observed […]
Climate Audit 