Update: Next instalment here On March 16, Science sent me 10 (out of 14) measurement data sets used by Esper; one gridcell temperature series used by Osborn-Briffa and caused Briffa to archive annual data versions at WDCP in addition to the smoothed versions. The new information has been extremely helpful to me. However, the information […]
People have been wondering why there is such difference between Polar Urals versions. In many cases, the archived Osborn and Briffa [2006] version (smoothed) is consistent with the emailed Esper et al [2002] version – but not always. It’s always worthwhile examining differences and here are a few.
I’ve got to get back to the NAS presentation and this will be my last post on Polar Urals and Yamal for a while, but it is all quite delicious. Anyway, here is a spaghetti graph of 3 Polar Urals results – including the results from Esper et al [2002] just disclosed by Science, all […]
It’s interesting that the Hockey Team seems to be able to make spaghetti graphs of world temperature history when they can’t even arrive at a spaghetti graph for the Polar Urals. I posted up the difference between Briffa’s Yamal substitution and the updated Polar Urals ring widths. But before either one, there was Briffa’s Polar […]
As noted a couple of days ago, I received a response from Science in respect to my request for data from Osborn and Briffa [2006]. They asked that the response be confidential, but pointed me to a file archived at WDCP on Feb. 9, 2006, which proved to contain, not original data, but smoothed versions […]
Here’s another look at Polar Urals using a “grass plot” showing cumulative ring width for individual trees against time. The trees plotted in black are from the original archive (russ021) and the ones plotted in red are form the 1998 update (russ176). This gives a little different viewpoint on variance stabilization issues. First, one of […]
Rob Wilson has written in sharply criticizing me (Yamal Substitution #3) for a lack of a balanced presentation on the Yamal substitution, and, in particular, for not acknowledging the "clear statistical reasons (related to variance changes through time)" that he had provided me offline for why D’Arrigo et al 2006 made the Yamal substitution. Also […]
There’s some very important new information related to the “Yamal Substitution” – which sounds like a Ludlum novel title – in the Esper site chronologies which Science provided today. Also see here here here. Here’s a plot of a 40-year smooth of the Esper site chronology for Polar Urals and Briffa’s archived version of the […]
A couple of days ago, I posted up a copy of a letter that I sent to Science on archiving or non-archiving in connection with Osborn and Briffa 2006, Esper et al [2002] and Thompson et al 1989 (Dunde); 1997 (Guliya). I received a reply from Science today, which they stated was not for “public […]
I wrote recently about the Yamal substitution for the Polar Urals series in both Osborn and Briffa [2006] and D’Arrigo et al, 2006. This substitution is not incidental as the Yamal version had by far the strongest closing uptick in either data set, while the updated Polar Urals ring width series (1998 update) had elevated […]
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