Tag Archives: MBH confidence intervals

Not A Solution to the Caramilk Secret

Update: the following does not explain the Caramilk secret of MBH99 confidence intervals, which remains unexplained and mysterious. End Update. OK, Mann starts with a sigma obtained from the standard errors in the calibration period from his hugely overfitted model. He uses this in MBH98. In MBH99, recognizing the autocorrelation in the residuals, he adjusts […]

More on MBH Confidence Intervals

I’ve posted in the past on the mystery of MBH confidence interval calculations, especially the mysterious MBH99 confidence intervals (another Caramilk secret). In our NAS panel presentation and perhaps before, I’d speculated that MBH98 confidence intervals, rotundly described in MBH98 as “self-consistently estimated” were nothing other than twice the standard error of the (overfitted) calibration […]

MBH Confidence Intervals #2

At present, I’m having trouble figuring out what on earth is going on with MBH confidence intervals. Here is a figure showing the one-sigma confidence intervals in MBH98 (cyan) and MBH99 (salmon). Figure 1. MBH98 and MBH99 one-sigma by calculation step. Cyan – MBH98; salmon – MBH99. Solid black – CRU std dev; dashed red […]

MBH98 Confidence Intervals

I’ve been looking at MBH98 confidence interval estimation. There are many puzzles as to methodology. Here I’ll touch on some archiving oddities. Figure 1. Standard deviation of MBH98 Reconstruction Steps