Tag Archives: MBH confidence intervals

Not A Solution to the Caramilk Secret

Apr 25, 2006 – 2:59 PM

Update: the following does not explain the Caramilk secret of MBH99 confidence intervals, which remains unexplained and mysterious. End Update. OK, Mann starts with a sigma obtained from the standard errors in the calibration period from his hugely overfitted model. He uses this in MBH98. In MBH99, recognizing the autocorrelation in the residuals, he adjusts […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in MBH98, Replication | Also tagged , | Comments (46)

More on MBH Confidence Intervals

Apr 25, 2006 – 10:55 AM

I’ve posted in the past on the mystery of MBH confidence interval calculations, especially the mysterious MBH99 confidence intervals (another Caramilk secret). In our NAS panel presentation and perhaps before, I’d speculated that MBH98 confidence intervals, rotundly described in MBH98 as “self-consistently estimated” were nothing other than twice the standard error of the (overfitted) calibration […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in MBH98, Replication | Also tagged , , | Comments (194)

MBH Confidence Intervals #2

May 7, 2005 – 7:42 PM

At present, I’m having trouble figuring out what on earth is going on with MBH confidence intervals. Here is a figure showing the one-sigma confidence intervals in MBH98 (cyan) and MBH99 (salmon). Figure 1. MBH98 and MBH99 one-sigma by calculation step. Cyan – MBH98; salmon – MBH99. Solid black – CRU std dev; dashed red […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in MBH98, Replication | Also tagged , | Comments (9)

MBH98 Confidence Intervals

May 7, 2005 – 12:43 PM

I’ve been looking at MBH98 confidence interval estimation. There are many puzzles as to methodology. Here I’ll touch on some archiving oddities. Figure 1. Standard deviation of MBH98 Reconstruction Steps

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in MBH98, Replication | Also tagged , | Comments (4)