A late report on my visit to Holland. I don’t think that I’ve talked as much in a month as I did in 36 hours in Holland. I had two main presentations -one at KNMI in the morning; one at the Free University in the afternoon. I also had two long newspaper interviews and a […]
Here’s a survey article by the International Detection and Attribution Group url. I’ll post a few threads like this, but don’t plan to comment myself. If someone wants to contribute a brief summary, it would be appreciated.
AS both David H’s observe, the Stern Review is expected next month. Their science views are summarized here. I may post some headnotes at a later time, but it’s an interesting browse and some of you may wish to comment on it specifically.
I’ve posted up a pdf for Allen and Tett 1999 here as this seems to be a frequently cited article that said that "optimal fingerprinting" was linear regression and gives a flavor for the literature. The approach looks to me like pretty garden variety methodology, such as one would see in the fall term of […]
The U.K. Royal Society has recently sent a letter to ExxonUK which has attracted commentary about whether it is an interference with free speech (see Roger Pielke and the discussion there) . I’m interested in a different aspect of this letter – their reliance on IPCC detection and attribution discussion. The Royal Society takes exception […]
Here is the (big) change in correlation as the Emanuel data are progressively smoothed, 0x, 1x, 2x. (Here I exclude the endpoints, which is what one ought to do.) cor(SST,PDI) [1] 0.5050575 cor(SST.1,PDI.1) [1] 0.6278249 cor(SST.2,PDI.2) [1] 0.7484223 Square those to obtain r^2. Here are two graphs of Emanuel’s SST and PDI, showing the effect […]
Here’s Willis’ most recent summary of the ongoing dialogue on the Emanuel story.
This continues the previous post which is overweight in comments.
The NAS Panel used Esper et al 2002 as a comfort series in their spaghetti graph, but did not perform any due diligence on it. As some of you may recall, I’ve had prolonged correspondence with Science, after being stonewalled by Esper, and, as a result of that, have obtained versions of the chronologies used […]
On Sep 11-12, 2006, KTH (Royal Institute of Technology) in Stockholm, Sweden hosted an international seminar on climate variability (seminar website here). The seminar had 16 speakers from 14 countries and was attended by 120 people. It was organized by Peter Stilbs and Fred Goldberg, who extended great hospitality to the presenters. Anders FlodstràÆà, President […]
Climate Audit 
Stern Review – Technical Appendix
AS both David H’s observe, the Stern Review is expected next month. Their science views are summarized here. I may post some headnotes at a later time, but it’s an interesting browse and some of you may wish to comment on it specifically.