Monthly Archives: July 2006

Calibration RE

Jul 4, 2006 – 5:36 AM

The NAS Panel notes the following about several statistics used in proxy studies: If are the predictions from a linear regression of on the proxies, and the period of interest is the calibration period, then RE, CE, and are all equal. Here’s a result about MBH methods (and applicable to related methods with re-scaling) that […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Statistics | Tagged , | Comments (10)

Famiglietti Strikes Again

Jul 3, 2006 – 8:54 AM

There is another terrific article by Bürger and Cubasch posted up here . I’ve just looked at for a few minutes so far and it will take time to fully digest, but one can tell right away that it is a very interesting and stimulating article. Gerd Bürger notified me of it and I therefore […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in MBH98 | Tagged | Comments (39)

Spot the Hockey Stick #15: NOAA and a reply to Jerry Pournelle

Jul 3, 2006 – 1:17 AM

(John A): On Jerry Pournelle’s fascinating weblog, a poster has mentioned Steve McIntyre’s expanded horizons into the world of multiproxy studies and the revealing reply to the NAS Panel by D’Arrigo in praise of cherrypicking proxies because "that’s what you have to do if you want to make cherry pie". Jerry responds: The basis assumption […]

By John A | Posted in Spot the Hockey Stick! | Comments (27)

What was "First" About MBH98?

Jul 2, 2006 – 9:39 AM

The NAS Panel claimed that MBH98 was the "first systematic" multiproxy study. It wasn’t; it didn’t even claim to be, citing Bradley and Jones 1993 and several other studies of the same vintage as predecessors. Crowley was a peer reviewer for the NAS panel, who presumably relied on him to catch this sort of mis-step. […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in MBH98, NAS Panel | Comments (30)

Groveman and Landsberg

Jul 1, 2006 – 2:01 PM

Jean S pointed out the following quote from the NAS Report and suggested that this be discussed: The first systematic, statistically based synthesis of multiple climate proxies was carried out in 1998 by M.E.Mann, R.S.Bradley and M.K. Hughes (Mann et al. 1998); their study focused on temperature for the last 600 years in the Northern […]

By Stephen McIntyre | Posted in Multiproxy Studies, NAS Panel | Tagged | Comments (32)