John A writes: I thought this would be interesting to note in passing. The IPCC has “Guidance Notes for Lead Authors of the
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on Addressing Uncertainties“.
Amongst its recommendations:
Make expert judgments
5. Be prepared to make expert judgments and explain those by providing a traceable account of the steps used to arrive at estimates of uncertainty or confidence for key findings — e.g. an agreed hierarchy of information, standards of evidence applied, approaches to combining or reconciling multiple lines of evidence, and explanation of critical factors.
6. Be aware of a tendency for a group to converge on an expressed view and become overconfident in it . Views and estimates can also become anchored on previous versions or values to a greater extent than is justified. Recognize when individual views are adjusting as a result of group interactions and allow adequate time for such changes in viewpoint to be reviewed.
“Be aware of a tendency for a group to converge on an expressed view and become overconfident in it“? Imagine that.